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美国拜登政府对华危机管控策略及前景

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2017年以来,特朗普政府对华战略的调整将中美关系带入了战略竞争的未知水域.拜登上台后开始寻求一种可控的对华战略竞争,其主要表现就是出台了一套对华危机管控策略,包括为美国对华战略竞争设置底线,强调发挥外交渠道在对华危机预防和管控中的作用,通过舆论手段在危机管控上施压中国.其动因主要是地缘政治环境转型、中美关系迈向"新常态"、美国支持稳定的对华关系的声音、拜登及其团队的执政风格,以及历史经验等.拜登的对华危机管控思维使得中美关系逐步走出下跌螺旋,但其举措和效果仍存在局限性.美国对华战略竞争总体态势、美国国内政治、第三方国家的冒险行为以及中美现有危机管控机制的缺陷将是持续阻碍未来美国对华危机管控效果的重要因素.
The US Biden Administration's Crisis Management Strategy towards China
Crisis management is an important part of China-US diplomatic and security interaction.The Biden administration's crisis management strategy towards China includes setting a bottom line for the US strategic competition towards China,giving full play to the role of diplomacy in crisis prevention and management,and pressuring China on crisis management by shaping public opinion.From a hierarchical perspective,the drastic transformation of the geopolitical situation after the end of the unipolar era,the trend of China-US relations to a"new normal"status,the support of progressive forces inside America,the governing style of Biden and his team,and the historical experience of crisis management between major countries are the driving forces behind the Biden administration's emphasis on crisis management towards China.The effectiveness of the Biden administration's crisis management in China is affected by factors such as the situation of US strategic competition towards China,American domestic politics,risky behaviors of third-party countries,and the shortcomings of the existing crisis mechanisms between China and the United States.Looking to the future,the US leaders'strategic bottom line of avoiding confrontation and conflict with China has continuity,but the 2024 US presidential election will be a key variable that affects the prospects of the US crisis management towards China.

China-US relationsBiden administrationcrisis managementUS strategic competition towards China

蔡泓宇

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清华大学国际关系学系

中美关系 拜登政府 危机管控 美国对华战略竞争

2024

现代国际关系
中国现代国际关系研究院

现代国际关系

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.819
ISSN:1000-6192
年,卷(期):2024.(6)
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