New Trends of De-dollarization:Effectiveness and Prospects
During the period of great transformation,the wave of de-dollarization has re-emerged,exhibiting new trends that differ from previous movements.De-dollarization can be analyzed from two dimensions:the functions of international currency and the behavioral choices of actors.The market-driven degree of de-dollarization remains relatively low,with the US dollar still being the preferred currency in international markets.Government-led de-dollarization has become the primary driving force,specifically manifested in government positions,national policies,and policy practices.By analyzing de-dollarization from the perspectives of actors,means,and targets,three new trends have emerged during this period of transformation:the group-based nature of actors,the digitalization of means,and the infrastructure-based nature of targets.However,the effectiveness of de-dollarization under these new trends remains limited.The main reasons include the inconsistency between the attitudes and behaviors of users regarding de-dollarization,the network externalities of the US dollar system,the path dependency of US dollar usage,and the hegemonic maintenance by the US dollar issuer.Changes in the domestic economic,governance,and power bases supporting the US dollar will determine the future trajectory of de-dollarization.Under the dual influence of the new external trends in de-dollarization and the evolving internal foundations of the dollar,dollar hegemony will face unprecedented challenges,making the stability of the international monetary system and international financial security critical issues.
de-dollarizationinternational monetary systemUS dollar systeminternational financial security
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