Predictions of Preschool Age Population and Resource Demands from 2024 to 2035:A Study Based on the"Three-Child"Policy
Against the background of the full implementation of the"three-child"policy,this study,based on the data from the Seventh National Population Census,uses the CPPS2020 software to predict the birth population,the school-age population,and the number of children enrolled in preschools in the period of 2024-2035.It uses the two total fertility rate scenarios including high and low fertility rates and measures the demand for full-time teachers and financial inputs for each of these years in kindergarten institutions.The results include:in 2035,China's birth population will increase by 990 000 and decrease by 60 000 under the high scenarios and low scenarios respectively compared with 2024;the total number of school-age population and children in kindergartens will decrease overall and cluster towards cities,and the scale of children in kindergartens will be between 24.98 million and 27.52 million by 2035,with 71%to 72%of the children in kindergartens attending school in cities and towns.In terms of the current level of supply of educational resources,preschool institutions in urban and rural areas and full-time teachers in towns and cities can meet future demand,while there is a large shortage of full-time teachers and education funding in villages.There is a need to coordinate the allocation of urban and rural preschools,promote the mobility of urban and rural teaching resources,establish a mechanism for sharing preschool education funding proportionally according to different projects and the various levels of the financial systems,and allocate more financial input to costs of personnel and utility.
"Three-child"policyPreschool educationSchool-age population changeEducational resource demand
万方数据
