老年HF患者30天再住院风险预测模型的构建及评价
Construction and evaluation of a risk prediction model for 30-day readmission in elderly patients with HF
王海燕1
作者信息
摘要
目的:构建并评价老年心力衰竭(HF)患者 30d 再住院的风险预测模型.方法:选取 210 例老年 HF患者,分析30d再住院的危险因素、建立预测模型,评价预测模型的效能.结果:210例患者30d内再住院率为16.19%.年龄、HF病程、NYHA心功能分级、焦虑、抑郁、出院后遵医嘱服药、PCI史为老年HF患者30d再住院的独立危险因素(P＜0.05).ROC曲线结果显示,预测模型预测老年HF患者 30d再住院风险的AUC、特异度及灵敏度分别为 0.845、77.30%、84.20%.结论:老年HF患者30d再住院风险较大,根据危险因素构建的预测模型具有较好的预测价值.
Abstract
Objective:To construct a risk prediction model for 30-day readmission in elderly patients with HF and evaluate it.Methods:210 elderly patients with HF were selected.The risk factors for 30-day readmission were analyzed and a prediction model was constructed.The efficacy of this model was evaluated.Results:The 30-day readmission in this study was 16.19％.Age,course of HF,NYHA classification of cardiac function,anxiety,depression,medication compliance after discharge and history of PCI were independent risk factors for 30-day readmission in elderly patients with HF(P＜0.05).ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC,specificity and sensitivity of the prediction model for predicting the risk of 30-day readmission in elderly patients with HF were 0.845％,77.30％and 84.20％.Conclusion:Elderly patients with HF have a higher risk of 30-day readmission.The prediction model constructed based on risk factors has good predictive value.
关键词
心力衰竭/老年/再住院风险/危险因素/预测模型Key words
Heart failure/Elderly/Readmission risk/Risk factor/Prediction model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据