Research on Population Policy Evaluation and Forecasting Based on System Dynamics Simulation Modelling——Taking Fertility Policy as an Example
[Purpose/Significance]Simulation based on system dynamics can comprehensively capture the dynamics of complex social systems under the influence of policies,accurately simulate the cumulative impact of policy intervent ions over time,and evaluate the implementation effect of policies,which plays an extremely important role in promoting the sci-entific and efficient formulation and use of policy tools and improving the effectiveness of policies.[Method/Process]Tak-ing the implementation of fertility policy as an example,based on key influencing factors such as fertility rate and environ-mental influencing parameters such as education and economy,this paper constructed a simulation system based on system dynamics through Vensim PLE.The model dynamically demonstrated the interactions between the population—policy—e-conomy subsystems and designed and implemented three differentiated policy intervention scenarios,and conducted in-depth simulations to predict the paths of demographic change and the evolutionary trends under different policy orientations.[Result/Conclusion]It is found that the liberalization of fertility policies had effective in mitigating the ageing trend while promoting population growth.However,the impact of the policy is waning and structural changes and adjustments are ur-gently needed.
system dynamicssimulationpolicy effectivenessfertility policy
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