Trends in coronary heart disease mortality in China from 1992 to 2021:an age-period-cohort model analysis
Objective To analyze the trends in coronary heart disease(CHD)mortality in China from 1992 to 2021,providing a basis for adjusting and optimizing CHD prevention and treatment policies.Methods This study employed the Join point re-gression model to calculate the annual percentage change in mortality trends,exploring variations in CHD mortality over con-secutive time periods.Additionally,an age-period-cohort(APC)model was utilized to compute effect coefficients,assessing the individual impacts of age,period,and birth cohort on CHD mortality risk.Results From 1992 to 2021,the overall mortal-ity rates for CHD in both genders showed an upward trend,with average annual percentage changes of 0.584％,0.979％,and 0.097％,respectively.The APC model estimates revealed that the mortality risk for the age group of 90 to 94 was 614.97 times higher for males and 519.08 times higher for females compared to the age group of 15 to 19.In terms of period effects,the CHD mortality risk for males and females from 2017 to 2021 was 2.58 times and 1.78 times higher,respectively,than that from 1992 to 1996.Regarding cohort effects,individuals born between 1902 and 1906 had a CHD mortality risk 25.07 times and 24.41 times higher for males and females,respectively,compared to those born between 2002 and 2006.Conclu-sion The overall CHD mortality rate in China is on the rise,with a focus on male and elderly populations.Age,period,and birth cohort each have independent effects on CHD mortality risk.Therefore,a multifaceted approach is necessary to advance preventive measures,control risk factors,and reduce mortality risks among residents.
Coronary heart diseaseMortality trendsJoin point regression modelAPC model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
