Analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease in Qingdao based on a distributed lag nonlinear model
Objective To investigate the effects of daily average temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in Qingdao,as well as their lagged effects,providing data support for prevention and control strategies in the city.Methods Utilizing HFMD case data from 2010 to 2019 provided by the Qingdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention and meteorological data measured by the China National Meteorological Science Data Center,we first employed Pearson correlation analysis to identify key meteorological factors.Subsequently,the Prophet model was used to analyze the periodicity and trends of HFMD incidence in relation to meteorological factors.Finally,a distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to quantify the lagged effects.Results The study found that when the daily average temperature in Qingdao ranged from 23℃ to 30℃,the relative risk(RR)of HFMD significantly increased,peaking at approximately 2.2 when the temperature reached 30℃.Similarly,when relative humidity was between 70％and 90％,the RR increased notably,peaking at around 2.5 as humidity approached 90％.Additionally,the effects of daily average temperature and relative humidity on HFMD incidence exhibited lagged characteristics,typically with a lag period of about 7 days.When the daily average temperature exceeded 17℃,the risk of HFMD transmission due to lagged effects gradually increased;likewise,when relative humidity surpassed 70％,the lag period was approximately 7 days,resulting in a significant enhancement of transmission risk.Conclusion The findings indicate that when the temperature in Qingdao approaches 23° C or humidity nears 70％,there will be a significant impact on HFMD incidence one week later.Therefore,it is recommended that relevant departments in Qingdao implement preventive measures in advance during these meteorological conditions to reduce the risk of HFMD transmission.
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