Analysis and prediction of the disease burden attributable to high BMI in postmenopausal women in China from 1990 to 2021
Objective To analyze the disease burden attributable to high BMI in postmenopausal women in China from 1990 to 2021,examine the trends of this burden,and predict the situation from 2022 to 2050 to guide future public health policies and interventions.Methods Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,the study selected indicators such as the number of breast cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)attributable to high BMI among postmenopausal women in China.Join point regression models were employed to analyze trends in mortality rates and DALYs,while age-period-cohort models were used to explore the effects of different ages,periods,and birth cohorts.The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)package was applied to predict future disease burden trends.Results From 1990 to 2021,the overall disease burden of breast cancer attributable to high BMI in postmenopausal women in China showed an increasing trend,with the number of deaths rising by 439.28％and DALYs by 441.27％.Both the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALYs rate increased(with average annual percent changes of 23.1％and 27.0％,respectively,P＜0.001).The age-standardized mortality rate peaked at over 95 years,while the age-standardized DALYs rate peaked in the age group of 55 to 60.Conclusion The disease burden of breast cancer attributable to high BMI in postmenopausal women in China shows a continuous upward trend,with increases in mortality and DALYs rates surpassing global averages.It is anticipated that this burden will continue to rise over the next thirty years.Therefore,it is recommended to strengthen the prevention and control of overweight and obesity among postmenopausal women in China,enhance breast cancer screening rates,and implement targeted health education and public health interventions.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
