首页|中国农业对外投资对RCEP国家粮食安全的影响分析

中国农业对外投资对RCEP国家粮食安全的影响分析

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粮食安全是关乎国计民生的重要议题,在全球经济紧密联结下对其的讨论更加激烈.随着RCEP的签署,中国在世界的影响力不断扩大,对RCEP成员国的粮食安全产生新的影响.研究基于RCEP成员国2004-2019年的面板数据,利用主成分分析法构建RCEP国家粮食安全综合指标体系,运用最小二乘法和固定效应模型研究RCEP国家粮食安全与中国农业对外投资之间的关系.并通过脉冲响应分析,了解这些影响是否随时间推移而变化,旨在探究中国农业对外投资对RCEP成员国粮食安全的影响.研究发现:(1)从整体看,农业生产价值、农村人口年增长率对RCEP成员国粮食安全产生正向影响;从单个国家看,中国农业对外投资、耕地面积、农业生产价值、贸易开放度与其RCEP成员国粮食安全呈正相关关系.(2)RCEP国家粮食安全对于耕地面积、农业生产价值、农村人口增长率的冲击呈现正向响应;对于中国农业对外投资的冲击呈现负向响应.
Impact Analysis of China's Agricultural Foreign Investment on the Food Security of RCEP Countries
Food security is an important issue of both national economy and people's livelihood.Its discussion is becoming more intense under the close connection of the global economy.China's global influence continues to expand as a result of the RCEP,and this has new implications for the food security of RCEP countries.Based on panel data from RCEP countries from 2004 to 2019,this study constructed a comprehensive indicator system for food security of RCEP countries using principal component analysis.The relationship between food security of RCEP countries and China's agricultural foreign investment was studied using the least squares method and fixed effects model.Through pulse response analysis,whether these effects have changed over time were investigated in order to explore the impact of China's agricultural foreign investment on the food security of RCEP countries.The research found that:(l)Overall,agricultural production value and annual growth rate of rural population had positive impacts on food security in RCEP countries.From a single country perspective,China's agricultural foreign investment,cultivated land area,agricultural production value,and trade openness were positively correlated with the food security of RCEP countries.(2)Food security of RCEP countries had positive response on the impact of arable land area,agricultural production value,rural population growth rate and negative response on the impact of China's foreign investment.

food securityevaluation systemregional comprehensive economic partnership(RCEP)

陈亦璠、麦强盛、孙智雄

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西南林业大学会计学院,云南 昆明 650224

粮食安全 评价体系 区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)

国家自然科学基金项目云南省省院省校教育合作人文社会科学研究项目

72363031SYSX202209

2024

现代农业
内蒙古自治区农牧业科学院

现代农业

影响因子:0.14
ISSN:1008-0708
年,卷(期):2024.49(1)
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