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山东省农业碳排放空间演化及对策研究

Research on the Spatial Evolution and Countermeasures of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Shandong Province

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全面探索农业生产碳排放空间演化对制定合理的农业减碳政策具有重要意义.利用山东省2000-2020年的农业碳排放数据,估算山东省16个地区的农业碳排放量和强度,进一步研究山东省农业生产碳排放量和强度的区域差异、时空格局和动态演变.研究结果表明:(1)各地区农业碳排放量总体呈倒U形变化趋势,表现出"上升—平稳波动—下降"的演化趋势;(2)各地区农业生产碳排放强度呈现"平稳波动—持续下降"趋势,至2020年达到最低值;(3)在过去的20年中,山东省碳排放高强度和中高强度地区不断向中强度和低强度演化,2020年所有地区均降为中强度及以下;(4)山东省16个地区农业生产碳排放强度Moran's Ⅰ指数呈N形波动,表现出明显的空间集聚特征.对此,深入剖析山东省农业碳排放空间演化趋势,提出碳减排对策,以期为山东省农业的可持续发展提供理论参考.
Comprehensively explore the spatial evolution of agricultural production carbon emissions is of significant importance for formulating rational agricultural carbon reduction policies.Using agricultural carbon emission data in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020,this study estimated the emissions and intensities across 16 regions within the province,and investigated the regional disparities,spatial-temporal patterns,and dynamic changes in agricultural carbon emissions and intensities in Shandong Province.The research findings indicated that:(l)Overall,agricultural carbon emissions across various regions exhibited a reversed U shape trend,characterized by"rise-stable fluctuation-decline"evolution trend;(2)Agricultural production carbon emission intensities in different regions showed a trend of"stable fluctuation-continuous decline",reaching its lowest point by 2020;(3)Over the past 20 years,regions with high and medium-high carbon emission intensities in Shandong Province have continuously evolved towards medium and low intensities,with all regions transitioning to medium intensities or lower by 2020;(4)The Moran's Ⅰ index of agricultural production carbon emission intensities across the 16 regions of Shandong Province fluctuated in an N shape,demonstrating a distinct spatial clustering characteristics.In light of these findings,an in-depth analysis of the spatial evolution trends in agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province was conducted,along with proposed carbon emission reduction strategies,providing theoretical references for the sustainable development of agriculture in the province.

agricultural carbon emissionsspatial distribution characteristicscarbon emission intensityMoran's Ⅰ Index

杜鹏、董文姗、周东旭

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大连海洋大学,辽宁大连 116000

农业碳排放 空间分布特征 碳排放强度 Moran's Ⅰ指数

教育部供需对接就业育人项目辽宁省教育科学"十四五"规划课题大连市社科联重点项目大连海洋大学海洋与渔业人力资源管理研究创新团队研究项目

20220104742JG22DB1102022dlskzd081C202112

2024

现代农业
内蒙古自治区农牧业科学院

现代农业

影响因子：0.14
ISSN：1008-0708
年,卷(期)：2024.49(3)