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湖北省农业碳排放脱钩弹性及影响因素研究

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湖北省是我国重要粮食生产基地之一,其农业碳排放问题关乎生态环境与经济发展的平衡,对于实现可持续发展目标具有重要意义.文章采用排放系数法测算2005-2022年湖北省农业碳排放总量、强度和构成,并基于Tapio脱钩模型、LMDI模型分别分析农业碳排放与经济发展间的脱钩关系及农业碳排放的影响因素.结果表明,2005-2022年湖北省农业碳排放量呈现先增加后减少的趋势;湖北省的农业碳排放碳源构成依次为化肥、农药、柴油、农膜、灌溉、播种;农业碳排放强度逐年递减;农业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩弹性表现为弱脱钩向强脱钩演变的趋势;农业经济发展水平对农业碳排放的促进作用最为明显,农业生产效率对碳排放也有一定促进作用,但结果不显著;农业人口规模、农业产业结构能够抑制碳排放增长.基于此,湖北省应立足农业大省这一优势,充分挖掘农业减排固碳潜力、加强农业技术创新、提升农业劳动力素质,促进碳减排.
Decomposition of Decoupling Elasticity and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Hubei Province
As one of the important grain production bases in China,Hubei Province's agricultural carbon emissions are related to the balance between the ecological environment and economic development,and has great significance for achieving the goal of sustainable development.The emission coefficient method was used to measure the total amount,intensity and composition of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2022,and the decoupling relationship with economic development and agricultural carbon emissions,as well as the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions were analysed based on the Tapio decoupling model and the LMDI model,respectively.The results showed that:from 2005 to 2022,the agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province show a trend of increasing and then decreasing;in the composition of the agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province,were as follows:fertiliser,pesticide,diesel,agricultural film,irrigation and sowing;the intensity of the agricultural carbon emissions decreased year by year;the decoupling elasticity between agricultural carbon emissions from the economic growth showed the evolution of the trend from a weak decoupling to a strong decoupling;the level of agricultural economic development had the most obvious promotion effect on agricultural carbon emissions,and agricultural production efficiency also had a certain promotion effect on carbon emissions,but the result was not significant;the size of the agricultural population and the structure of the agricultural industry could inhibit the growth of carbon emissions.Based on this,Hubei Province should base on the basic advantages of a large agricultural province,fully explore the potential of agricultural emission reduction and carbon fixation,strengthen agricultural technological innovation,and improve the quality of agricultural labour to promote carbon emission reduction.

Hubei Provinceagricultural carbon emissionscarbon emission intensityTapio decoupling modelLMDI model

周涛、李皎

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云南农业大学经济管理学院,云南 昆明 650500

湖北省 农业碳排放 碳排放强度 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI模型

教育部高教司产学合作协同育人项目第十七届学生科技创新创业行动基金项目

2021010510042024Y1048

2024

现代农业
内蒙古自治区农牧业科学院

现代农业

影响因子:0.14
ISSN:1008-0708
年,卷(期):2024.49(5)