首页|黄河流域农业农村现代化发展水平的区域差异与动态演进

黄河流域农业农村现代化发展水平的区域差异与动态演进

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推进农业农村现代化建设是实施乡村振兴的重要目标任务,也是实现中国式现代化的必由之路。文章基于黄河流域9个省区2010-2022年统计数据,采用熵权-TOPSIS法对黄河流域农业农村现代化发展水平进行测度,并根据Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数、核密度估计、Markov链等分析方法对其区域差异和动态演进特征展开研究。结果表明:在样本观测期内,黄河流域农业农村现代化发展水平、农业现代化发展水平、农村现代化发展水平在2010-2022年均呈现上升趋势,其中农村现代化发展水平上升较慢;农业农村现代化发展水平的总体差异呈现出波动下降的趋势,其中,组间差异是总体差异的主要来源,且存在显著的空间聚集状态;核密度分布曲线逐渐向右移动,两极分化情况有所改善;未来黄河流域农业农村现代化发展水平呈现出梯度上升的态势,各省区未来发展水平与邻接省区有关。据此,应多方位重视农村发展,因地制宜发展区域特色产业,加强区域协同合作,充分发挥农业农村现代化高水平发展区域的辐射带动作用。
Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Agricultural and Rural Modernization Development Level in the Yellow River Basin
Promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural areas is an important target task for the implementation of rural revitalization,as well as a necessary way to realize Chinese path of modernization.Based on the statistical data of nine provinces in the Yellow River basin from 2010 to 2022,the study measured the development level of agricultural and rural modernization in the Yellow River basin by using the entropy weight-TOPSIS method,and researched its regional differences and dynamic evolution characteristics based on the Dagum's Gini coefficient,Moran's I,kernel density estimation,and Markov chain.The results showed that in the sample observation period,the development level of agricultural and rural modernization,agricultural modernization and rural modernization in the Yellow River basin displayed an upward trend from 2010 to 2022,but the development level of rural modernization rose slower;the overall difference in the development level of agricultural and rural modernization showed a fluctuating downward trend,in which the difference between groups was the main source of the overall difference and there was a significant spatial aggregation;the distribution curve of nuclear density had gradually shifted to the right,and the polarization had improved;it is also found that the future development level of agricultural and rural modernization in the Yellow River basin showed a gradient upward trend,and the future development level of each province was related to its neighboring provinces.Accordingly,multi-directional attention should be paid to rural development,regional characteristic industries should be developed according to local conditions,regional synergistic cooperation should be strengthened,and the radiation-driven role of regions with high levels of agricultural and rural modernization development should be brought into full play.

modernization of agriculture and rural areasYellow River basindynamic evolutionentropy weight and TOPSIS methodMarkov chain

张庆红、李诗禹

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新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830012

农业农村现代化 黄河流域 动态演进 熵权-TOPSIS法 Markov链

2024

现代农业
内蒙古自治区农牧业科学院

现代农业

影响因子:0.14
ISSN:1008-0708
年,卷(期):2024.49(6)