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2025年全球金融形势展望及应对建议

Outlook for Global Financial Situation in 2025 and Relevant Suggestions for Response

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当前,全球经济格局持续经历深度调整、形势复杂多变,金融形势危与机并存、变与险同在.预计 2025 年,全球货币政策将全面趋向宽松,流动性有望重新进入扩张轨道,但多变的国际局势可能导致资产价格及风险偏好波动,促使跨境资本流动进一步收缩.在此背景下,我国将在货币政策操作空间扩大的同时,面临较大的外部不确定性风险.对此,我国央行应坚持支持性的货币政策立场,实施适度宽松的货币政策,大力推进金融创新,在防范化解重点领域风险的同时更好支持实体经济发展.
Currently,the global economic landscape is undergoing profound adjustments,with complex and volatile situations.The financial situation is characterized by both crisis and opportunity,as well as change and risk.It is expected that in 2025,global monetary policy will shift towards overall easing,and liquidity is expected to re-enter an expansionary trajectory.However,the volatile international political situation may lead to significant fluctuations in asset prices and risk preferences,and cross-border capital flows may further contract.While the operational space for monetary policy in China is expanding,the country faces a complex situation of capital outflow risks,exchange rate pressure,and internal difficulties.In response,the People's Bank of China should adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance,implement moderately loose monetary policies,vigorously promote financial innovation,and better support the real economy while preventing and resolving risks in key areas.

Financial LandscapeMonetary PolicyInternational Finance

侯燕磊、侯钰

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中国宏观经济研究院经济研究所

中共中央党校(国家行政学院)研究生院

金融形势 货币政策 实体经济

2024

新经济导刊
国务院发展研究中心信息中心

新经济导刊

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.232
ISSN:1009-959X
年,卷(期):2024.(12)