Study on dynamic relationship between cotton trade and cotton price based on VAR model
How to effectively deal with the complex and changing situation of the cotton trade market and maintain the stability of cotton price is of great significance to realize the healthy development of China's cotton industry and guarantee the safety of cotton.By using the VAR model,the dynamic relationship between cotton import and export trade and cotton price in Xinjiang was ex-plored,the cotton development situation was analyzed from the perspective of"trade-price".The results showed that in the short term,cotton imports and Xinjiang cotton price are the reasons for the changes in cotton exports,and there is no causal relationship between them;there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three,but there is a certain time lag;cotton exports are af-fected by the other two variables to a certain extent,but they are more dependent on their own internal forces to promote.Based on conclusions above,development countermeasures such as improving quality and efficiency,setting production according to de-mand,optimizing subsidies and trade protection were proposed.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
