基于VAR模型的棉花贸易与棉价的动态关系研究
Study on dynamic relationship between cotton trade and cotton price based on VAR model
王鹏鹏 1高花彦 1冯啸林 2马伟达 2孙治国 2卢泉1
作者信息
- 1. 塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔 843300
- 2. 新疆科技学院经济学院,新疆库尔勒 841000
- 折叠
摘要
有效应对复杂多变的棉花贸易市场形势、维持棉价稳定对于实现我国棉花产业健康发展、保障棉花安全具有重要意义.本文运用VAR模型,探究棉花进出口贸易与新疆棉花价格间的动态关系,从"贸易-价格"的视角分析棉花发展局势.结果表明:短期内,棉花进口量与新疆棉价是棉花出口量变动的原因,其他情况不存在相互的因果关系;三者之间存在长期均衡关系,但具有一定的时滞性;棉花出口虽一定程度上受其他两个变量影响,但更依赖于自身内力推动.基于以上结论,提出了提质增效、以需定产、优化补贴、贸易保护等发展对策.
Abstract
How to effectively deal with the complex and changing situation of the cotton trade market and maintain the stability of cotton price is of great significance to realize the healthy development of China's cotton industry and guarantee the safety of cotton.By using the VAR model,the dynamic relationship between cotton import and export trade and cotton price in Xinjiang was ex-plored,the cotton development situation was analyzed from the perspective of"trade-price".The results showed that in the short term,cotton imports and Xinjiang cotton price are the reasons for the changes in cotton exports,and there is no causal relationship between them;there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three,but there is a certain time lag;cotton exports are af-fected by the other two variables to a certain extent,but they are more dependent on their own internal forces to promote.Based on conclusions above,development countermeasures such as improving quality and efficiency,setting production according to de-mand,optimizing subsidies and trade protection were proposed.
关键词
新疆棉/价格波动/棉花贸易/动态关系Key words
Xinjiang cotton/Price fluctuation/Cotton trade/Dynamic relationship引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金(19BJY139)
首批国家级新文科建设与实践项目(2021090093)
塔里木大学研究生创新项目(TDGRI202270)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据