The Agricultural Trade Cost Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative
This study empirically examines the impact and mechanisms of the Belt and Road(B&R)initiative on the bilateral trade costs of agricultural products between China and countries along the route.Firstly,utilizing the trade cost calculations based on Novy(2012)gravity model,the results indicate a substantial 42%reduction in agricultural product trade costs between China and B&R countries from 2002 to 2021,surpassing the decline observed with non-B&R countries.Secondly,employing a difference-in-differences model,this study verifies the significant role played by the B&R initiative in lowering agricultural product trade costs between China and B&R countries.The research further reveals that the impact of the B&R initiative on agricultural product trade costs is more pronounced in developed countries and countries located farther from China,compared to developing countries and those in closer proximity.Finally,mechanism testing suggests that the BRI primarily reduces bilateral agricultural product trade costs through expanding trade openness,promoting policy communication and facilitating infrastructure construction.These empiri-cal findings contribute valuable evidence to the study of the policy effects of the B&R initiative,offering an experiential basis for proposing policy recommendations to further reduce agricultural product trade costs.This is conducive to promoting and deepening agricultural cooperation between China and countries along the route,fostering mutually beneficial outcomes.
the Belt and Road initiativeagricultural trade costsdifference-in-differences model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
