Disease burden analysis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)in China from 1990 to 2019 and incidence prediction in the next 10 years
Objective Understand the incidence,morbidity,mortality and disease burden of chronic ob-structive pulmonary disease(COPD)from 1990 to 2019 in China,predict the incidence of COPD in China from 2020 to 2030,and provide data support for the evaluation and formulation of policies and measures related to the prevention and treatment of COPD.Methods The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study was used to analyze the incidence,morbidity,mortality,disability-adjusted life expectancy(DALY),early death life loss year(YLL)and disability life loss year(YLD)of COPD in China from 1990 to 2019.Bayes-ian-period-cohort analysis(BAPC)method was used to predict the incidence of COPD in China from 2020 to 2030.Results Compared with 1990,the crude prevalence of COPD was increased by 35.44％in China;the standardized prevalence was decreased by 27.16％;the crude incidence was increased by 38.31％;the standardized incidence was decreased by 28.52％;the crude mortality rate was decreased by 30.59％;and the standardized mortality rate was decreased by 70.08％in 2019.Chinese YLL rate caused by COPD was decreased from 3 281.48/100 000 to 862.37/100 000,the YLD rate was decreased from 330.33/100 000 to 240.40/100 000,and the DALY rate was decreased from 3 611.81/100 000 to 1 102.77/100 000 from 1990 to 2019.In 2019,the DALY rate of COPD in men was decreased by 66.56％compared with 1990,and the DALY rate in women was decreased by 71.87％compared with 1990.From 2020 to 2030,the standardized incidence of COPD in China was expected to show a downward trend,the standardized inci-dence of male disease in 2030 was expected to decrease by 31.97％compared with 2020,and the standardized incidence of female disease was expected to decrease by 27.69％compared with 2020.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the disease burden of COPD showed an overall downward trend in China.In terms of illness and death,the disease burden of COPD in China was at a high level based on the fact that the number of cases and deaths was higher.Meanwhile,the prediction results show the standardized incidence of COPD in Chi-na will decrease in the next 10 years.Therefore,it should early screening,early prevention,early treat-ment and widespread knowledge of COPD are of great significance for the management of COPD disease.
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)burden of diseaseprognosis of morbiditydisability-adjusted life expectancy yearsBayesian-period-cohort analysis
万方数据
维普
