Study on relationship between carotid artery ultrasound crouse plaque score and short-term prognosis of patients with acute cerebral infarction(ACI)and its predictive value
Objective To investigate the relationship and predictive value of carotid ultrasound crouse plaque score in the short-term prognosis of the patients with acute cerebral infarction(ACI).Methods A total of 98 patients with ACI admitted to the hospital from November 2022 to October 2023 were selected.All patients underwent carotid arteryultrasound examination upon the admission,and the crouse plaque score was calculated.After a 3-month follow-up,the prognosis of the patients were assessed using the modified Rankin scale(mRS).Thepatients with a score of ≤2 were considered to have a good prognosis and included in the control group,while those with a score of＞2 were considered to have a poor prognosis and included in the observation group.Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between carotid arteryultrasound crouse plaque score and short-term prognosis in ACI patients.Receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)and calibration curve were drawn to analyze the value of carotid ultra-sound crouse plaque score in predicting the short-term prognosis of thepatients with ACI.Results Of the 98 ACI patients followed up for 3 months,3 were lost to follow-up,resulting in 95 valid follow-ups.Among them,59 patients had an mRS score of ≤2 and were included in the control group,with a good prognosis rate of 62.11％.The remaining 36 patients had an mRS score of＞2 and were included in the observation group,with a poor prognosis rate of 37.89％.Compared with the control group,the age,in-farct volume,degree of neurological impairment,proportion of stroke-associated pneumonia,and in-creased crouse plaque score in carotid arteryultrasound of the observation group were significantly different(P＜0.05).In Logistic regression model 1,without adjustment for confounding factors,1％increase in carotid ultrasound crouse plaque score was associated with a 3.361-fold increase in the risk of short-term poor prognosis in ACI patients(P＜0.05).After adjusting for age in Logistic regression model 2,1％in-crease in carotid arteryultrasound crouse plaque score was associated with a 3.157-fold increase in the risk of short-term poor prognosis in ACI patients.In Logistic regression model 3,after further adjusting for age,infarction volume,degree of neurological impairment,and stroke-related pneumonia,a 1％increase in carotid ultrasound crouse plaque score was associated with a 3.099-fold increase in the risk of short-term poor prognosis in ACI patients(P＜0.05).The AUC of carotid arteryultrasound crouse plaque score in predicting short-term prognosis in ACI patients was 0.876,with a 95％CI ranging from 0.793 to 0.935.The maximum Youden index was 0.716,and the sensitivity and specificity were 75.00％and 96.61％,re-spectively.The calibration curve demonstrated a good fit between the standard curve and the prediction curve,with a Brier score of 0.039 and a calibration slope of 0.974.Conclusion An increase in carotid ar-teryultrasound crouse plaque score is associated with an increased risk of short-term poor prognosis in patients with ACI,providing a valuable reference for clinical prediction of short-term outcome in the patients.
carotid artery ultrasoundcrouse plaque scoreacute cerebral infarction(ACI)prognosispredictive value
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