Construction and validation of a nomogram predictive model for survival and prognosis of patients with primary distal thoracic and abdominal esophageal adenocarcinoma
Objective To investigate the independent influencing factorsof survival and prognosis of patients with distal thoracic and abdominal esophageal adenocarcinoma,and construct a nomogram model for analy-sis and verification.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1 537 patient records from the hospital between January 2008 and December 2018,divided into a training set(n=1 076)and a validation set(n=461)at a 7∶3 ratio.Survival status was assessed,and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on the training set.A survival prediction nomogram was then developed and validated internally and externally.Results There were no significant differences in age or gender between the training and validation sets(P＞0.05).The 5-year survival rate in the training set was 17.19％(185/1 076),with a median survival time of 38.00 months(range:22.00-56.00 months).Univariate and multivariate analy-ses indicated that age at diagnosis,degree of tissue differentiation,TNM staging,surgical intervention and radiotherapy and chemotherapy,along with lymph node biopsy results,significantly influenced survival(P＜0.05).The C value of the nomogram risk prediction model based on the training set was 0.735±0.014,and the areas under the curve for predicting the 1-year,3-year and 5-year survival conditions of thepatients were 0.720,0.740and 0.765,respectively.Conclusion The nomogram model based on the independent influencing factors of survival prognosis in patients with primary lower thoracic segment and abdominal esophageal adenocarcinoma has good efficacy in predicting the survival of thepatients.
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