首页|疫苗接种效应影响下的SVEIR模型的动力学分析

疫苗接种效应影响下的SVEIR模型的动力学分析

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[目的]由于流行病会随着时间的变化而发生变化,因此,结合现实情况,研究一种受接种疫苗比率和免疫率影响的带时变性质的SVEIR疾病传播模型的平衡点的动力学性质.[方法]首先,通过构建动力学模型研究平衡点的存在性;其次,利用下一代矩阵法得出模型的基本再生数R0和有效再生数Re;最后,通过Lyapunov定理和Routh-Hurwitz判别方法对病毒的基本再生数和有效再生数进行稳定性分析.[结果]通过python数值仿真实验,得出当R0<1时,疾病会消失;当R0>1时,流行病会转化为地方流行病;当R0=1时,系统会出现临界分岔现象.[结论]接种疫苗是疾病防控的关键措施之一.Ro的取值决定流行病的演化结果.
Dynamic analysis of SVEIR model under the influence of vaccination effect
[Objective]Generally,because epidemic will change with time,the dynamics of the equilibrium point of a time-varying SVEIR disease transmission model affected by the vaccination rate and immunization rate is studied by combining with the reality.[Methods]First,the existence of equilibrium point was studied by constructing a dynamics model;Second,the basic regeneration numbers Ro and effective regeneration numbers Re are obtained by using the next generation matrix method;Finally,the stability of the basic regeneration numbers and effective regeneration numbers were analyzed by using Lyapunov theorem and Routh-Hurwitz discrimination method.[Results]Through python numerical simulation experiment,it is obtained that when Ro<1,the disease will disappear;When Ro>1,the epidemic will transform into a local epidemic;When Ro=1,the system will have a critical bifurcation.[Conclusions]Vaccination is one of the key measures of disease prevention and control.The value of vaccine Ro determines the evolution of epidemic.

vaccination effectdelaySVEIR modelstability

王海玲、翁智峰

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厦门大学嘉庚学院信息科学与技术学院,福建漳州 363105

华侨大学数学科学学院,福建泉州 362021

疫苗接种效应 时滞 SVEIR模型 稳定性

福建省教育教学改革研究项目福建省高等学校产学合作项目教育部产学协同育人项目教育部产学协同育人项目漳州市自然科学基金

FBJG201701542018H6018JGH2019003JGH2019023ZZ2018J26

2024

厦门大学学报(自然科学版)
厦门大学

厦门大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.449
ISSN:0438-0479
年,卷(期):2024.63(2)
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