Mathematical modeling of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on immune escape ability of Omicron variant
[Objective]As the fifth SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern,Omicron variant secures significantly higher infectious capacity characteristics than previous Delta and other variants.However,fatality and critical symptoms after Omicron infection have been remarkably reduced.The Omicron variant also exhibits some immune evasion ability and continues to remain effective against basic or enhanced vaccinated people.This study aims to predict the domestic infection trend of the COVID-19 through the application of a mathematical model approach,with consideration of the epidemiological mechanism of the Omicron variant and the verifiable infection statistics released by authoritative government agencies.By integrating the empirical data with sophisticated mathematical equations,this study intends to elucidate the potential viral infection patterns in China.This study aims to predict the domestic infection trend of the SARS-CoV-2 based on a mathematical model method,by considering the immune evasion characteristics of the Omicron variant.[Methods]The Omicron variant exhibits the characteristics of immune evasion and low lethality during community infections.By considering the transmission dynamics mechanism of the Omicron variant,we divide the social population into four major epidemic categories:susceptible(S),generally infected(I),hospitalized critically ill(H),and recovered(R).Then,we establish a SIHR evolution mathematical model in order to predict the possible COVID-19 infections in the community.The basic reproductive number of the SIHR model can be calculated with the spectral radius(the largest eigenvalue)of the next generation matrix.According to the epidemiological equilibrium theory of the autonomous ordinary differential equation system,the disease-free equilibrium point analytical solution of the SIHR mathematical model is computed by using the basic reproductive number.This study also delves into the stability properties of differential equation system,by following the rigorous framework of Lyapunov's stability theory for ordinary differential equations.The stability of the SIHR model is analyzed based on the Hurwitz matrix approach and the Descartes'criterion,both of which are well-established principles for deriving the stability properties of dynamical systems.[Results]Based on the public data of domestic epidemic infections,we calculate and find the basic reproductive number for the Omicron variant infection model to be 4.08.The global stability related to the positive singularity solution of the SIHR mathematical model is noted.The epidemic infection trends of Shenzhen City and Fujian Province from December 2022 to September 2023 are forecasted respectively,based on the publicly released domestic COVID-19 epidemic and demographic data.The results indicate that the overall epidemic infections of both Shenzhen City and Fujian Province would reach their first peaks around January 2023.Both of the epidemic infection trends in Shenzhen City and Fujian Province are predicted to gradually decrease in different waves until converging to a stable status.It takes about six months between the first and the second infection waves,and the time span between subsequent waves would take longer.By comparing the other popular epidemic model,the prediction results of the proposed SIHR model are much closer to the real infection facts reported in China.[Conclusions]After analyzing those prediction results in the computer simulation experiments,we finally conclude that the Omicron variant will lead to multiple infection waves but gradually weaken,and finally become regional epidemic in China,after the government implements the 10th edition of the epidemic prevention and control strategy.The SIHR mathematical model proposed in this study is also useful for the formulation of evidence-based public health strategies and interventions.
SARS-CoV-2Omicron variantbasic reproductive ratiodifferential equationstability theory
万方数据
维普
