适度超前开展基础设施投资对财政可持续性的影响研究
Study on the Impact of Moderately Ahead-of-Time Infrastructure Investment on Fiscal Sustainability
张明源1
作者信息
- 1. 中共辽宁省委党校经济学教研部 辽宁沈阳 110004
- 折叠
摘要
我国当下的基础设施建设依赖政府财政靠前发力,而财政可持续性问题成为适度超前开展基础设施投资面临的最大阻碍.本文的研究表明,虽然一般公共预算资金在基建投资中的占比持续走低,但是政府财政仍然是我国基础设施建设投资中的关键角色.基建投资不是造成地方政府债务较高、影响我国财政可持续性的根源.从估算结果来看,虽然受到多种因素制约,但是2020-2022年政府资金的平均资金撬动效应高达2.7倍,民间资金依赖政府资金在基础设施建设领域的带动作用.预计至2035年,我国每年基建财政支出空间在5.5万亿—7.3万亿元,"十四五"期间政府资金预计平均每年拉动其余资金16.2万亿元.因此,对于地方政府而言,开展基建投资的关键在于优化专项债使用机制、提升政府投资决策能力以降低资金成本,提高资金使用效率.通过建立健全政府投资、补贴与价格的协同机制,更好地利用有限的财政预算资金撬动民间投资,带动经济系统整体健康平稳运转.
Abstract
China's current infrastructure construction relies on the government's financial strength,and the problem of financial sustainability has become the biggest obstacle to the moderate advancement of infrastructure investment.The research in this paper shows that although the proportion of general public budget funds in infra-structure investment continues to decline,government finance is still a key player in China's infrastructure invest-ment.Infrastructure investment is not the root cause of high local government debt and the impact on China's fis-cal sustainability.After estimation,although constrained by various factors,the average leverage effect of govern-ment funds from 2020 to 2022 is as high as 2.7 times,and private funds rely on the driving role of government funds in infrastructure construction.It is expected that by 2035,China's annual financial expenditure on infra-structure is expected to be around 5.5 trillion to 7.3 trillion yuan.During the 14th"Five-Year Plan"period,gov-ernment funds are expected to drive the remaining funds by an average of 16.2 trillion yuan per year.Therefore,for local governments,the key to carrying out infrastructure investment lies in optimizing the mechanism for using spe-cial bonds,enhancing the government's investment decision-making ability,reducing capital costs,and improving capital utilization efficiency.By establishing a sound collaborative mechanism between government investment,subsidies,and prices,we can better utilize limited fiscal budget funds to leverage private investment and drive the overall healthy and stable operation of the economic system.
关键词
财政可持续性/基础设施投资/基础设施建设/财政预算/政府投资/政府补贴/专项债/地方政府债务Key words
fiscal sustainability/infrastructure investment/infrastructure development/fiscal budget/govern-ment investment/government subsidies/specialized debt/local government debt引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJL066)
辽宁省社会科学规划基金一般项目(L18BLW003)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据