Research on the Impact of Forward-Looking Management on Banks'Expected Credit Losses——An Analysis Based on 58 Listed Commercial Banks
As the key to the implementation of the Expected Credit Loss Methodology,the acquisition and ad-justment of forward-looking information are the main means to achieve the expected goals,which is also fundamen-tally different from the previous model.This paper analyzes the gaps in forward-looking management of China's commercial banks against the advanced experience of foreign forward-looking management,and selects the for-ward-looking management data of domestic A-share and H-share listed commercial banks for empirical research.The study finds that forward-looking management has a significant positive impact on banks'impairment provi-sioning,but there are problems such as uneven effects,excessive localized expectations,and lack of similar compa-rability.It is suggested that regulators should strengthen the regulatory guidance and supervision of commercial banks,improve the expected credit loss measurement system,and strengthen market cultivation and supervision.