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宏观审慎政策宽松实践、效果评估及现实启示

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宏观审慎政策不仅要在风险积累时坚定稳妥收紧,而且要在风险显性化时及时有效放松,已有研究多聚焦前者,针对后者的研究相对较少,而后者对于完善宏观审慎政策框架、防范系统性金融风险、提高逆周期调节能力同样具有重要现实意义.本文探讨了宏观审慎政策宽松的内涵、作用机理和制约因素,梳理了新冠疫情前及疫情期间宏观审慎政策宽松的国际实践,并基于66国数据采用计量模型科学评估了政策效果,在此基础上总结了实施宏观审慎政策宽松的有益经验,分析了我国宏观审慎政策宽松实践现状及存在的问题,并提出政策建议.研究发现,宏观审慎政策宽松可通过稳定信贷市场、保障金融运行、引导正向预期、产生外部性等传导渠道实现政策目标,但也面临不少制约因素;总体看,疫情期间实施宏观审慎政策宽松显著缓解了疫情冲击带来的经济压力和金融压力,其中,逆周期资本缓冲工具的宽松效果相对突出;有效积累缓冲、保障缓冲释放、把握好政策尺度是提高宏观审慎政策宽松效果的重要因素;我国探索开展了内容丰富、特色鲜明的宏观审慎政策宽松实践,但还存在政策潜力有待释放、政策工具箱仍需丰富完善、政策视野需要向非银金融部门延伸、政策应对非传统风险能力有待提高等问题.结合我国宏观审慎管理实际,本文从健全完善宏观审慎政策宽松实施机制、疏通宏观审慎政策宽松传导渠道、把握宏观审慎政策宽松操作尺度、夯实宏观审慎政策宽松工具储备等四个方面提出政策建议.
Macroprudential Policy Easing Practices,Effectiveness Assessment,and Reality Revealing
Macroprudential policies should not only be firmly and steadily tightened when risks accumulate,but also effectively relaxed in a timely manner when risks become apparent.Most of the existing research focuses on the former,and there are relatively few studies on the latter,which is also of great practical significance for im-proving the macroprudential policy framework,preventing systemic financial risks,and improving the ability of counter-cyclical adjustment.This paper discusses the connotation,mechanism and constraints of macroprudential policy easing,combs through the international practice of macroprudential policy easing before and during the CO-VID-19 epidemic,and scientifically evaluates the policy effect based on 66 countries'data using econometric models.On this basis,this paper summarizes the useful experience in implementing macroprudential policy eas-ing,analyzes the current situation and problems in China's macroprudential policy easing practice,and puts for-ward policy recommendations.It finds that macroprudential policy easing could achieve policy objectives through such transmission channels as stabilizing the credit market,safeguarding financial operations,guiding positive ex-pectations and generating externalities,but it also faced a number of constraints.Overall,the implementation of macroprudential policy easing during the epidemic significantly eased the economic and financial pressures brought about by the epidemic shock,with the easing effect of the countercyclical capital buffer tool being relative-ly prominent.Effectively accumulating buffers,guarantee buffer releasing and grasping the policy scale are impor-tant factors in improving the effectiveness of macroprudential policy easing.China has explored and carried out macroprudential policy easing practices with rich content and distinctive features,but there are still issues such as policy potential to be released,policy toolkit still needs to be enriched and perfected,policy horizons need to be ex-tended to the non-banking financial sector,and the ability of policy to deal with nontraditional risks needs to be improved.Combined with the actual macroprudential management in China,this paper puts forward policy sugges-tions from four aspects,including improving and perfecting the implementation mechanism of macroprudential pol-icy easing,dredging up the transmission channels of macroprudential policy easing,grasping the operational scale of macroprudential policy easing,and consolidating the reserve of macroprudential policy easing tools.

macroprudential policysystemic financial riskrisk prevention and controlfinancial cyclecoun-tercyclicalfinancial regulationfinancial stabilityCOVID-19 epidemic

王晓明、夏洪涛、李建伟、程卫红、高磊、魏鹏飞、赵明晓、陆萍

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中国人民银行天津市分行 天津 300040

宏观审慎政策 系统性金融风险 风险防控 金融周期 逆周期 金融监管 金融稳定 新冠疫情

2024

西南金融
四川省金融学会

西南金融

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.821
ISSN:1009-4350
年,卷(期):2024.(4)
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