首页|我国养老产业发展"拐点"研判——基于多案例研究的典型事实

我国养老产业发展"拐点"研判——基于多案例研究的典型事实

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  • NETL
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随着人口老龄化进程加速,我国的养老需求结构正在从生存型向发展型转变,这将为养老产业的发展带来广阔的市场空间,但当前我国养老产业发展相对滞后,仍面临严重的发展困境.我国养老产业发展的"拐点"何时到来?为回答好这个问题,本文以案例研究和实证分析相结合的研究框架,首先,以法、德、日、美四国为例,系统梳理其养老产业发展历程,总结归纳出养老产业发展"拐点"出现的共性特征;其次,聚焦日本养老产业发展轨迹,重点关注其介护险实施前后养老产业相关重要指标变化;最后,选取九个养老产业相关指标,基于指数平滑、灰色模型等方法对中国养老产业未来情况进行预测,并与日本可比时期指标情况进行比较,判断中国养老产业"拐点"出现的可能时间.研究发现:养老产业发展"拐点"的出现具有四个共性特征,分别是三支柱养老金体系改革、长护险制度全面实施、多元化服务助推医养结合、代际转换背后的产业增量机会,而中国养老产业发展"拐点"可能出现的窗口期将在2026-2030年间.
Prejudgment for China's Pension Industry Development"Inflection Point"——Typical Facts based on Multiple Case Studies
With the acceleration of the population ageing process,the structure of China's elderly care de-mands is changing from survival type to development type,which will bring broad market space for the develop-ment of the pension industry.However,the current development of China's pension industry is relatively lagging behind,still facing serious development difficulties.When will the"inflection point"of the development of Chi-na's pension industry come?To answer this question,this paper combines case studies and empirical analysis of the research framework,first of all,takes France,Germany,Japan and the United States as examples to systemati-cally sort out the development history of their pension industry,summarize the common characteristics of the"in-flection point"in the development of the pension industry.Secondly,this paper focuses on the development trajec-tory of Japan's pension industry,focusing on the changes of important indicators related to the pension industry be-fore and after the implementation of its long-term care insurance.Finally,this paper selects nine indicators related to the pension industry,predicts the future situation of China's pension industry based on the methods of index smoothing and grey modeling,and compares them with the indicators of the comparable period of time in Japan,so as to judge the possibility of the emergence of the"inflection point"of China's pension industry.The findings re-veal that there are four common characteristics in the emergence of the"inflection point"in the development of the pension industry,namely the reform of the three-pillar pension system,the comprehensive implementation of the long-term care insurance,diversified services to promote the integration of elderly care and medical services,and the opportunities for industrial growth behind inter-generational transformation.The possible window period for the emergence of the"inflection point"in the development of China's pension industry will be between 2026 and 2030.

pension industryaging financepension servicesintegrated elderly care and medical serviceslong-term care insurancecommunity elderly carepopulation agingcommon prosperity

巴曙松、龚书豪、李妮娜、李成林

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北京大学汇丰金融研究院 广东深圳 518055

中央财经大学金融学院 北京 100098

中南财经政法大学金融学院 湖北武汉 430073

四川财经职业学院 四川成都 610000

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养老产业 养老金融 养老服务 医养结合 长护险 社区养老 人口老龄化 共同富裕

2022年度国家社科基金一般项目

22BJL042

2024

西南金融
四川省金融学会

西南金融

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：0.821
ISSN：1009-4350
年,卷(期)：2024.(4)
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