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新疆森林火灾时空分布特征及其与气候的关系

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基于森林火灾报表数据(1999-2020年)和中国火灾网络数据(2005-2018年),利用相关分析、相对重要性分析等方法,分析了新疆森林火灾时空规律,探讨了过火面积与气候的关系。结果表明:80%的火灾发生在13:00-17:00,3-9月是火灾起数高发月份(占全年89。62%),8-9月是过火面积较高月份(占全年79。59%),森林火灾起数和过火面积自1999年以来均呈现下降趋势,且过火面积下降趋势显著。空间范围80°~88°E,43°~48°N是森林火灾发生的主要区域。8-9月过火面积主要受气温日较差(原始数据:r=0。49,P<0。05;去趋势数据:r=0。68,P<0。05)和最高温(原始数据:r=0。47,P<0。05;去趋势数据:r=0。54,P<0。05)的影响。森林火灾主要是人为引起的,2017-2020年(58。46%)比1999-2016年(71。73%)人为火源比例下降13。27%。研究结果可为新疆森林火灾监测预警提供科学依据,即当预测8-9月最高温度较高的时候,需加强重点时段和关键地区的火源管控。
Temporal-spatial Characteristics of Forest Fire and Their Linkages with Climates in Xinjiang
Based o correlation and relative importance analysis,we made full use of the officially released forest fire data(1999-2020)and Wildfire Atlas of China(2005-2018)for Xinjiang,summarized their temporal-spatial patterns,analyzed fire-climate relationships,and comprehensively explored their causes.The results were as follows:On the daily scale,80%of the forest fires were found between 13:00 and 17:00.On the monthly scale,most forest fires occurred from March to September(89.62%),with relatively higher burned areas being ob-served from August to September(79.59%).On annual scales,both fire count and burned areas showed a decreas-ing trend since 1999,with the latter decreasing significantly.Spatially,forest fires in Xinjiang were observed at the spatial regions of 80°-88°E,43°-48°N.August-September diurnal temperature range(DTR,raw data:r=0.49,P<0.05;detrended data:r=0.69,P<0.05)and maximum temperature(Tmax,raw data:r=0.47,P<0.05;detrended data:r=0.54,P<0.05)were found to be the key factors affecting burned areas in Xinjiang.Most forest fires in Xinjiang were caused by humans.The percentage of human-induced forest fires decreased by 13.27%for the periods of 2017-2020(59.76%)compared to that during 1999-2016(71.73%).The results of this study may provide scientific guidelines on forest fire monitoring and alarming in Xinjiang.Specifically,forest fire source management for specific regions should be strengthened when the August-September maximum temperature in Xinjiang is projected to increase.

forest fireXinjiangspatial-temporal characteristicsdiurnal temperature rangemaximum tem-peratureclimatic factor

张秀梅、姚启超、刘琳、汪舟、黄茹

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国家林业和草原局森林草原火灾预防监测中心,北京 100714

国家自然灾害防治研究院森林草原防灭火研究中心,北京 100085

东北林业大学林学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150040

森林火灾 新疆 时空特征 气温日较差 最高温度 气候因素

应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院基本科研业务专项

ZDJ2022-13

2024

西南林业大学学报
西南林业大学

西南林业大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.773
ISSN:2095-1914
年,卷(期):2024.44(3)
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