云南农业碳排放强度与新型城镇化相互影响研究
Research on the Interaction Between Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity and New Urbanization in Yunnan
张晋豪 1邵小育 1赵丽 1余雨薇1
作者信息
- 1. 西南林业大学经济管理学院, 云南 昆明 650233
- 折叠
摘要
探究农业碳排放强度与新型城镇化的相互影响,对加快农业绿色转型,构建绿色低碳城市,实现全国碳达峰、碳中和目标意义重大.基于2010-2020 年云南16 个州市的面板数据,构建新型城镇化与农业碳排放强度的评价指标体系,分析云南各地区碳排放强度的时空变化情况和碳排放强度结构,并利用向量自回归模型(VAR)探究新型城镇化与农业碳排放强度之间的相互影响.结果表明:新型城镇化与农业碳排放强度之间呈显著负相关;新型城镇化与农业碳排放强度相互抑制作用会随着时间的推移而减弱;从新型城镇化与农业碳排放强度相互影响程度看,农业碳排放强度的影响效力更强.鉴于此,提出加快推进新型城镇化建设、加快产业互动、推进要素合理流动与资源有效配置、实现农业经济绿色低碳发展和加快农业现代化转型升级和大力发展绿色农业助力绿色低碳城镇建设的建议.
Abstract
Exploring the impact of agricultural carbon emission intensity on new urbanization is of great signifi-cance for accelerating the green transformation of agriculture,building a green and low-carbon city,and achieving the national carbon peak and carbon-neutral goals.Based on panel data from 16 prefectures and cities in Yunnan from 2010 to 2020,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the carbon emission intensity of new urbani-zation and agriculture,analyzes the spatiotemporal changes and structure of carbon emission intensity in various re-gions of Yunnan,and explores the interaction between new urbanization and agricultural carbon emission intensity using Vector Autoregressive Model(VAR).The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between new urbanization and agrarian carbon emission intensity;the interaction between new urbanization and agricultural carbon emission intensity will weaken over time;from the perspective of the degree of interaction between new ur-banization and agrarian carbon emission intensity,the impact of agrarian carbon emission intensity is more substan-tial.Given this,it is proposed to accelerate the construction of new urbanization,accelerate industrial interaction,promote the rational flow of factors and effective allocation of resources,achieve green and low-carbon development of the agricultural economy,accelerate the transformation and upgrading of agricultural modernization,and vigor-ously develop green agriculture to assist the construction of green and low-carbon cities.
关键词
农业/碳排放/城镇化/绿色低碳/向量自回归Key words
agriculture/carbon emission/urbanization/green and low carbon/vector autoregression引用本文复制引用
基金项目
云南省教育厅科研项目(2023Y0805)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据