Analysis of Agricultural Structure Evolution and Driving Forces in Karst Area Based on CCA and PCA Model
[Objective] The evolution of agricultural structure in Guizhou province is affected by various factors,such as large proportion of rural population,steep slopes,high quality arable land and fragile ecological environment.The present paper was to analyze the evolution characteristics and driving forces of agricultural structure in Guizhou Province during 1949-2013,and provided scientific basis for the structural reform of supply side.[Method] In this paper,the CCA model was used to reduce the dimension of the 13 driving factors which influenced evolution of agricultural production structure,and the PCA model was used to analyzed the correlation between main driving factors and agricultural structure.[Results] Firstly,there is a trend of decline in the proportion of farming,and a rise in the proportion of husbandry in agri-cultural structure in Guizhou Province from 1949 to 2013.The proportion of rice planting decreased from 75.7 ％ in 1949 to 59.9 ％ in 2013.The average annual growth of fruit and tobacco plantation was 6.93 ％ and 10.52 ％ respectively in economic crops.Secondly,on the basis of CCA reduced dimension of each driving factors,the ranking results of main driving factors were GDP,annual average temperature,planting area,proportion of agricultural population,new forestation area and annual precipitation.Thirdly,the main driving factors were divided into 3 main components by PCA model,and their contribution rate reached 47.83 ％,19.44 ％ and 16.69 ％ respectively,and cumulative contribution rate reached 83.95 ％,which shown the influence of social economic factors on evolution of agricultural structure was higher,and adaptability of agricultural structure to natural environment has promoted,and the dependence was weakened.[Conclusion] Limited arable land resources protection,efficient mountain ecological agriculture development,enhancing the level of agricultural drought resistance will become main trend of agricultural structure evolution in karst area.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
