首页|基于MaxEnt生态位模型的小花十万错在中国的潜在分布

基于MaxEnt生态位模型的小花十万错在中国的潜在分布

Potential distribution of Asystasia gangetica ssp.micrantha in China based on the MaxEnt ecological nice model

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[目的]探究气候因子、土壤因子对小花十万错分布的影响,为有效制定其管理措施提供依据.[方法]利用MaxEnt生态位模型对小花十万错在中国的潜在适生区进行预测.[结果]当年降水量在2000~3500 mm,年均气温25~26 ℃,年均温变化范围6~14 ℃时最适合小花十万错的生长,且最冷月最低温度处于20~30℃及最冷季平均温度在27 ℃左右时,小花十万错才能保持最大的生长效率,当最干月降水量在40 mm以上时才能保持存活,以上研究结果说明小花十万错具有喜温、畏寒、不抗旱的特点.在地理分布上,当前小花十万错仅在海南、台湾、广东三省有发现记录,但根据MaxEnt模型对当下气候的模拟分析,小花十万错在云南、广西、贵州、福建、江西、四川甚至西藏的某些地区具有适生区的存在,说明这些地区都存在被小花十万错生物入侵的危险.通过对未来气候的分析,可以得出小花十万错在我国境内的分布范围为扩张趋势,扩张的地区集中在云南、广西、广东、福建、海南等地.[结论]小花十万错的生长分布最易受年均温变化范围、年降水量、年平均气温、海拔等因素影响.当前,广东、广西、福建、云南、海南、台湾等省份均面临小花十万错的入侵风险,以台湾最严重,广东和海南次之,其余省份暂未发现该种的入侵记录.但从气候分析来看,存在小花十万错中、高适生区的云南、四川、广西等地仍然有被该种入侵的可能.因此,应根据防范区域的特点以及适生等级来制定区域性、重点性的防治计划,并在已被入侵的地区推广化学防治、生物防治等手段遏制小花十万错向邻近区域扩散,而在未被入侵的区域制定侧重于加强检疫、扩大检测的防治办法,预防小花十万错的跨区域传播.
[Objective]The present paper aimed to investigate the impacts of climate variables,environmental factors and environmental quali-ty indicators on the range of Asystasia gangetica ssp.micrantha,and to offer a foundation for efficient management strategies.[Method]The MaxEnt ecological niche model was used to predict the potential suitable areas of A.gangetica ssp.micrantha in China.[Result]The annual precipitation of 2000-3500 mm,the annual average temperature of 25-26 ℃,and the annual temperature variation range of 6-14 ℃ were the most suitable for the growth of A.gangetica ssp.micrantha,and the lowest temperature of the coldest month was 20-30 ℃,and the aver-age temperature of the coldest season was about 27 ℃,when A.gangetica ssp.micrantha could maintain the maximum growth efficiency,but it could still survive when the precipitation of the driest month was only 40 mm.The above results indicated that A.gangetica ssp.micrantha had the characteristics of thermophilic,cold-avoiding and drought-resistant.In terms of geographical distribution,A.gangetica ssp.micrantha was currently only found in Hainan,Taiwan and Guangdong provinces,but according to the simulation analysis of the current climate by the MaxEnt model,A.gangetica ssp.micrantha has suitable areas in some regions of Yunnan,Guangxi,Guizhou,Fujian,Jiangxi,Sichuan and e-ven Tibet,indicating that these regions were at risk of being invaded by A.gangetica ssp.micrantha.Through the analysis of future climate,it can be concluded that the distribution range of A.gangetica ssp.micrantha in China was expanding,and the expanding areas were concen-trated in Yunnan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Hainan and other places.[Conclusion]The growth and distribution of A.gangetica ssp.mi-crantha is the most easily affected by factors,such as annual temperature variation range,annual precipitation,annual average temperature,al-titude and so on.At present,Guangdong,Guangxi,Fujian,Yunnan,Hainan,Taiwan and other provinces are facing the invasion of A.gangetica ssp.micrantha,among which Taiwan's problem is the most serious,followed by Guangdong and Hainan,and the rest of the provinces have not found any records of its invasion.However,from the climate analysis,there is still a possibility of being invaded by A.gangetica ssp.mi-crantha in Yunnan,Sichuan,Guangxi and other places where there are medium and high suitable areas.Therefore,regional and key preven-tion and control plans should be formulated according to the characteristics and suitability levels of the prevention areas,and chemical and bi-ological control measures should be promoted in the invaded areas to prevent A.gangetica ssp.micrantha from spreading to neighboring are-as,while in the uninvaded areas,prevention and control measures should be formulated with emphasis on strengthening quarantine and expan-ding detection to prevent A.gangetica ssp.micrantha from spreading across regions.

MaxEnt ecological niche modelAsystasia gangetica ssp.micranthaClimate factorsSoil factor

李晓霞、胡宽义、曾安逸、董定超

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中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所,海口 571101

北京航空航天大学云南创新研究院,昆明 650051

MaxEnt生态位模型 小花十万错 气候因子 土壤因子

云南省农业跨境有害生物绿色防控重点实验室开放基金海南省自然科学基金高层次人才项目海南省自然科学基金青年基金海南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2023)

ZDKF002721RC631323QN299HNSKYB23-75

2024

西南农业学报
四川,云南,贵州,广西,西藏及重庆省(区,市)农科院

西南农业学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.679
ISSN:1001-4829
年,卷(期):2024.37(4)
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