Prediction of suitable distribution area of Eupatorus gracilicornis Arrow in China based on MaxEnt model
[Objective]The prediction of the habitat area of the endangered species Eupatorus gracilicornis was made to provide a theoretical basis for its protection.[Method]Based on geographical distribution records and environmental variable data,27 effective distribution points and 19 environmental factors were utilized,with the help of ArcGIS simulating the E.gracilicornis adaptive distribution areas in China of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 under the current and future climate conditions(2050s,2070s),MaxEnt model was used and the dominant environ-mental factors affecting the distribution were screened out.[Result]The MaxEnt model was used to repeat 10 operations for 19 environmental factors,and the calculated AUC value was 0.986,indicating that MaxEnt model had high accuracy.Six environmental factors were selected by the'knife cutting'method in MaxEnt model and analyzed.Finally the top four environmental variables affecting the potential geograph-ical distribution were temperature seasonality(BIO4,53.7％),precipitation of the warmest quarter(BIO 18,13.5％),annual precipitati-on(BIO 12,12.2％)and isothermality(BIO3,11.8％).The top four contributing rates of the dominant environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of E.gracilicornis were temperature seasonality(BIO4,53.7％),precipitation in the hottest quarter(BIO18,13.5％),annual precipitation(BIO12,12.2％),and isothermality(BIO3,11.8％).Under the current climatic conditions,the high suitable areas of E.gracilicornis were mainly located in the southern part of Yunnan province,the southern part of Xizhang Autono-mous Region,and the central part of Taiwan province.Under the 2050 RCP2.6 and 2070 RCP8.5 emission scenarios,the area of the high suitable area increased slightly in parts of Taiwan,Yunnan and Xizhang,but decreased under the other emission scenarios.[Conclusion]Temperature seasonality,precipitation of warmest quarter,annual precipitation,isothermality,min temperature of coldest month,tempera-ture annual range are the main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of E.gracilicornis in China.The prediction results of the suitable habitat of E.gracilicornis are generally consistent with the actual distribution in China.However,due to habitat loss,fragmenta-tion,degradation and habitat destruction,the actual suitable distribution area of E.gracilicornis will be further reduced and fragmented in the future,and the living environment of the endangered species of E.gracilicornis will not be optimistic.
Eupatorus gracilicornisPotentially suitable distribution areaEndangeredMaxEntArcGIS
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
