Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of land use change and carbon storage in western Sichuan mountains based on FLUS-InVEST model:A case study of Ya'an city
[Objective]Through quantitative calculation of carbon emission and carbon storage of various land use in the study area,the carbon storage of land ecosystem and its dynamic change characteristics were mastered,which provided references for optimizing land use and impro-ving regional carbon storage.[Method]Based on the land use data of Ya'an city in 2000,2010 and 2020,the present paper used FLUS-In-VEST model to quantify the carbon storage of Ya'an city in the past 20 years,analyzed its temporal and spatial change characteristics,and predicted the carbon storage and its change in 2030 by multi-scenario simulation.[Result](i)In the change trend of land use types in Ya'an city from 2000 to 2020,other land use types besides weeded land and unused land showed a positive growth trend,and the change ran-ges were grassland,unused land,cultivated land,forest land,construction land and water area,respectively,from low to high.The variation ranges were-7.41％,-3.87％,0.45％,3.42％,71.71％and 104.57％,respectively.(ii)From 2000 to 2020,the carbon storage of Ya'an city showed a trend of first rising at a high speed and then decreasing slowly,and the overall level of carbon storage increased slightly,increasing by 4.88 × 1010t,an increase of 1.03％;From the perspective of space,the region with the highest carbon storage in Ya'an city was Qionglai Mountain-Daxue Mountain line,and the regions such as Mengding Mountain and Zhougong Mountain showed a point-like distri-bution.(iii)Based on FLUS-InVEST model,it was estimated that compared with 2020,under the natural development scenario,the carbon storage of Ya'an city in 2030 showed a downward trend,and the total decline was 5.23 × 108t;Under the scenario of coordinated ecological development,the carbon storage of Ya'an city in 2030 showed an increasing trend,and its total increase was 1.77 × 109t.[Conclusion]It is predicted that under the scenario of coordinated ecological development,the carbon storage of land use change in Ya'an City in 2030 will be more than that under the scenario of natural development.Therefore,ecological restoration and protection can be strengthened through scientif-ic land use planning to promote the growth of regional carbon storage.
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