Simulation and GAP analysis of suitable areas of rare and endangered Parakmeria in China under climate change
[Objective]The study aimed at clarifying the response of the geographical distribution of rare and endangered Parakmeria to cli-mate change in China,and to provide reference for its management and protection.[Method]Based on the geographic distribution information and 38 environmental variables,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)optimized by R language was used to predict the change trend of the suitable area of each species,and the distribution protection GAP of species in nature reserves was analyzed.[Result]After MaxEnt opti-mized prediction,the AUC value of each species was greater than 0.9,indicating that the model was accurate.In China,the rare and endan-gered Parakmeria were mainly distributed in the Qinling Mountains to the south of the Huaihe River.The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Parakmeria were temperature and precipitation,and the driest month precipitation was the main factor affecting the distri-bution of Parakmeria omeiensis,and the optimal range was 15-210 mm,which was also affected by altitude.The most important factor affect-ing the growth of P.nitida was the annual temperature difference,and the optimum range was 9-26 ℃.The most important factor affecting the growth of P.lotungensis was the monthly mean value of difference temperature between day and night,and its suitable range was 6-8 ℃.The growth of P.yunnanensis was mainly affected by the average temperature in the driest season,and the suitable range was 7-14℃,which was also affected by soil factors.Under the climate scenario from 2061 to 2080,the total habitat area of P.omeiensis and P.nitida decreased by about 11％-33％,and the total habitat area of P.lotungensis and P.yunnanensis increased by about 15％-28％.The migration distance of each species was about 54-296 km.Under the base period and the future climate scenario,the total suitable area and high suitable area of species in the nature reserve were below 6％and 11％respectively.[Conclusion]The distribution of rare and endangered Parakmeria was most susceptible to the factors such as driest month precipitation,annual temperature difference and monthly mean of diurnal temperature difference.In the baseline period,the distribution of the high suitability area of each Parakmeria was scattered.With the warming climate in the future,the height suitable area of P.omeiensis and P.nitida would be reduced by about 29％-51％.P.lotungensis and P.yunnanensis would be increased by 21％-49％.In the future,the total suitability area and high suitability area of each Parakmeria in the nature reserve will fluctuate within 2％.It was suggested to increase nature reserves in southwest,central,east and south China areas with high heat value,so as to enhance the protection of rare and endangered Parakmeria in China.
Rare and endangeredParakmeriaClimate changeOptimize MaxEnt modelProtection GAP
万方数据
维普
