摘要
[目的]探明未来气候变化对西南地区烤烟种植气候适宜性的影响,为优化西南地区烤烟种植空间布局提供参考依据.[方法]采用层次分析法和反距离插值法,基于CMIP6(第六次国际耦合模式比较计划)单模式气候预测数据,研究未来西南地区烤烟种植气候适宜性区划的时空变化特征.[结果]未来气候变化下,西南地区烤烟种植气候适宜性以中适宜区为主,其面积占比均大于28％,其次是高适宜区和低适宜区,不适宜区面积较小;高适宜区和低适宜区的面积和占比上升较为突出,中适宜区和不适宜区的均下降显著;与1970-2000年相比,未来各情景大部分时期高适宜区和低适宜区的面积和占比均呈上升趋势,中适宜区和不适宜区的面积和占比均呈下降趋势.[结论]西南地区烤烟种植气候适宜性总体呈增加趋势;各时期烤烟种植气候适宜性变化空间异质性突出.
Abstract
[Objective]The effect of future climate change on climate suitability of tobacco cultivation is explored to provide a reference basis for optimizing the spatial layout of tobacco cultivation in Southwest China.[Method]The spatial and temporal changes in future zoning of cli-mate suitability for tobacco cultivation in Southwest China were analyzed by Hierarchical analysis and inverse distance interpolation based on the single-pattern climate predicted data of CMIP6.[Result]The climate suitability of tobacco cultivation in Southwest China would be domi-nated by medium-suitable zone(area proportion＞28％ ),followed by high-suitable zone and low-suitable zone with a smaller area of unsuita-ble zones under the future climate change.The area and proportion of high-suitable zone and low-suitable zones would increase more promi-nently but the area and proportion of medium-suitable zone and unsuitable zone would decrease significantly.The area and proportion of high-suitable zone and low-suitable zone both would be on the rise in most of the future and the area and proportion of medium suitable area and unsuitable area both showed a decreasing trend compared with the data during 1970-2000.[Conclusion]The climate suitability of tobacco cultivation shows an overall increasing trend but there is the significant spatial heterogeneity in climate suitability of tobacco cultivation among different periods in Southwest China.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据