A Research on the Trade Effect of Agricultural Products after China's Accession to CPTPP:Based on the WITS-SMART Model
Food security is the cornerstone of national security.Faced with the instability of the international market,China's accession to the CPTPP presents a new opportunity to strengthen the resilience of agricultural trade.Grounded in an examination of China's competitive and cooperative relationship in agricultural trade with CPTPP countries,this paper employs the WITS-SMART model to establish a partial equilibrium analytical framework.The study investigates the agricultural trade effects of China's accession to the CPTPP,revealing following outcomes.First,China's agricultural overall competitiveness is relatively weak,but it manifests strong trade complementarity with CPTPP nations.The bi-lateral trade potential will be fully realized upon the complete elimination of tariffs.Second,under a scenario of zero tar-iffs,the trade creation effect predominantly exceeds the trade diversion effect.China's agricultural trade with most CPTPP countries expands significantly,with import growth mainly from the farming and livestock sectors and coun-tries like Canada,Australia,the UK,and Japan.While export growth is mainly concentrated in the farming sector and countries such as Japan,the UK,Malaysia,and Mexico.Third,while China's accession to the CPTPP notably improves bilateral economic welfare,although tariff losses are substantial.Consequently,China should break down sectoral inter-est barriers and strengthen economic and trade ties with countries like Mexico,Japan,and the UK.This approach aims to fully tap into the market potential of CPTPP countries,unleash the benefits of trade liberalization,and consistently improve the quality of agricultural exports and international competitiveness to address challenges posed by CPTPP membership.
CPTPPagricultural productscompetition and cooperation relationshiptrade effectSMART model
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