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中国式老龄化:新结构经济学的新见解

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中国式老龄化是中国式现代化的重要组成部分,文章采用新结构经济学的分析方法,提出了关于中国式老龄化六方面的新见解。第一,中国式老龄化彰显的是人口老龄化的中国之问与中国之治。中国成功拓展了人类老龄化可能性边界,中国式现代化能与中国式老龄化齐头并进,老龄事业高质量发展应是中国式老龄化的首要任务。第二,中国式老龄化的成因主要源于中国的预期寿命革命。新中国建立的社会主义制度创造了健康奇迹,由此引起的预期寿命革命产生了中国目前数量巨大的老龄人口,新时代的健康中国战略将使中国进入长寿时代并进一步加速老龄化。第三,中国式老龄化的影响并不会如流行观点认为的那样悲观。中国式老龄化是人类发展的奇迹而非拖累,不会拖累中国的经济增长,但会引发经济结构的系统性变革。第四,中国式老龄化的治理需要符合国情。只有立足于反映国情的禀赋结构,才能走出一条中国特色积极应对人口老龄化的道路;只有立足老龄人口禀赋结构,才能实现老龄事业高质量发展;只有重塑适宜的养老体系,才能创造中国的养老奇迹。第五,中国式老龄化有可供世界借鉴的经验。创造中国预期寿命革命的初级卫生保健经验就写入了《阿拉木图宣言》,中国的经验(尤其是在老龄化进程中保持经济增长的经验)更适合发展中国家应对"未富先老"的挑战。第六,中国式老龄化有可供世界分享的机遇。中国共同富裕进程中将形成规模巨大的银发经济,但需要有效市场和有为政府更好地结合,产业按比较优势适老化转型,才能壮大银发经济。总之,中国式老龄化既有各国老龄化的共同特征,更有基于自身国情的中国特色,可以借鉴但不可模仿发达国家的老龄化制度与政策。
Chinese Style Aging:New Insights from New Structural Economics
Chinese style aging is an important part of Chinese path to modernization.This paper applies new structural economics to propose new views on six aspects of Chinese style aging.Firstly,the Chinese style aging reflects the questioning and governance of China's aging population.China has successfully expanded the aging possibility frontier.Chinese path to modernization can go hand in hand with Chinese aging.High-quality development of elderly care programs should be the primary task of Chinese style aging.Secondly,the main cause of China's aging population is the life expectancy revolu-tion in the county.The socialist system established by the People's Republic of China has created a health miracle in China,and the revolution in life expectancy caused by the health miracle has resulted in a huge aging population in China.The Healthy China Initiative in the new era will further accelerate the aging process of China's population into the era of longevity.Thirdly,the impacts of Chinese style aging are not as pessimistic as popular views suggest.The Chinese style aging is a miracle rather than a drag of human development.It will not hinder China's economic growth,but it will bring systematic changes in the economic structure.Fourthly,the governance of Chinese style aging needs to be in line with its national conditions.Only by focusing on the endowment structure that reflects the national conditions can we actively respond to the aging population with Chinese characteristics.Only by focusing on the endow-ment structure of the elderly population can we achieve high-quality development of the elderly care programs,and only by reshaping a suitable elderly care system can we create a miracle of elderly care in China.Fifthly,the Chinese style aging has experience for the world to learn from.The primary health care experience that created a life expectancy revolution in China was written into the Declaration of Alma-Ata.China's experience is more suitable for developing countries to cope with"getting old before getting rich",especially in maintaining economic growth in the process of aging.Sixthly,the Chinese style aging has opportunities for the world to share.The process of common prosperity in China will lead to the formation of a large-scale silver economy,but the silver economy requires a better combination of an effective market and a facilitating state,and the silver economy can grow only if industries can make elder-friendly transformations with their comparative advantages.In a word,Chinese style aging has the common features of population aging in all countries as well as the Chinese characteristics based on its own national conditions.China may learn from but should not imitate the systems and policies of devel-oped countries in dealing with population aging.

Chinese style agingChinese path to modernizationnew structural economicssilver economyelderly care programs

林毅夫、付才辉、张皓辰、郑洁

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北京大学新结构经济学研究院

北京大学新结构政治经济学教研室,北京100871

北京大学新结构环境经济学教研室,北京100871

中国式老龄化 中国式现代化 新结构经济学 银发经济 老龄事业

国家自然科学基金专项项目

72141301

2024

学术论坛
广西社会科学院

学术论坛

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.633
ISSN:1004-4434
年,卷(期):2024.47(1)
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