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基于Agent的城市突发公共卫生事件传播仿真研究

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建立城市突发公共卫生事件计算机仿真模型,以揭示其传播机制,快速经济地掌握规律与寻找防治策略.针对以往模型侧重分析静态参数的问题,提出一种基于智能体(Agent)可实现动态交互的SEIRD模型,使用NetLogo进行仿真实验.仿真结果表明,人群移动、医院救治、传染源分布等能体现个体行为或个体与环境交互的因素,对公共卫生事件传播规模与时间产生重大影响.模型可为突发公共卫生事件提供一种能模拟其随机性、交互性、动态性的科学分析方法.基于仿真实验分析得出,社区与单位管控、交通管制、医疗救治可提高防控的及时性与有效性.
Simulation Research on the Spread of Urban Public Health Emergencies Based on Agent
Establishing a computer simulation model for urban public health emergencies can help to reveal their transmission mechanisms,quickly and economically grasp the laws and search for prevention and control strategies.Aiming at the problem of previous models focusing on static parameter analysis,a SEIRD model based on Agent that can achieve dynamic interaction is proposed,and simulation experiments are conducted using NetLogo.The simulation results show that factors such as crowd movement,hospital treatment,and distribution of infectious sources that can reflect the interaction between individuals or between individuals and the environment will have a significant impact on the spread of public health emergencies.The model can provide a scientific analysis method for simulating the randomness,interactivity,and dynamics of public health emergencies.Based on simulation experiment analysis,community and organization control,traffic management,and expanding the medical treatment can improve the timeliness and effectiveness of prevention and control.

Agentpublic health emergenciesspreadsimulationSEIRD

余昌仁、王杨、李天龙

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陆军勤务学院,重庆 401331

Agent 突发公共卫生事件 传播 仿真 SEIRD

2024

系统仿真技术
同济大学

系统仿真技术

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.271
ISSN:1673-1964
年,卷(期):2024.20(3)