首页|客户盈余消息与分析师预测修正——基于供应链信息溢出视角

客户盈余消息与分析师预测修正——基于供应链信息溢出视角

Customer Earnings News and Analysts'Forecast Revision——Based on the Perspective of Supply Chain Information Spillover

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本文从供应链信息溢出视角,利用客户发布盈余公告的特殊事件,构建"分析师-供应商-客户-客户盈余公告"的多维样本,深入考察客户盈余公告发布后供应商分析师盈余预测行为的变化.研究发现,客户盈余公告传递的盈余消息越好,分析师向上调整盈余预测幅度越大;区分客户盈余增长驱动因素影响的差异后发现,销售增长驱动的客户盈余好消息促使分析师向上修正盈余预测,而成本控制驱动的客户盈余好消息则不具有修正效应.更进一步,在客户集中度较高、客户稳定性较强、客户盈余波动性较小和供应商信息透明度较差的样本中,客户盈余公告的分析师盈余预测修正效应更显著.研究还发现,客户实际盈余偏离预期越多,分析师盈余预测修正越及时,其修正后的盈余预测质量越有显著提升.上述结果表明,客户盈余能够传递供应商未来盈余的增量信息,具有供应链信息溢出效应,有助于分析师提升盈余预测质量.
We investigate the adjustments of analysts'earnings forecast after the release of customer earnings announcements based on the perspective of supply chain information spillover.Specifically,we construct a multi-dimensional sample of Analyst-Supplier-Customer-Customer Earnings Announcements and exam the influence of customer earning news on the adjustments of analysts'earnings forecast.The result shows that the better customers'earnings announcement news,the greater the upward adjustment of the earnings forecast by analysts;Considering the difference in the impact of customer earnings growth drivers,we find that sales growth-driven customers'earnings good news prompts supplier analysts to revise earnings forecasts upward,while cost control-driven customers'earnings good news does not have a similar revision effect.In further analysis,we find that the effects of analyst earnings forecast revisions on customer earnings announcements are more salient in samples with higher customer concentration,stronger customer stability,lower customer earnings volatility and poorer transparency of supplier information.In addition,we find that the more customers'actual earnings deviate from expectations,the more timely analysts'earnings forecasts will be revised,and the quality of their revised earnings forecasts will be significantly improved.The above results indicate customer earnings news has a spillover effect on supply chain information,which can convey incremental information of suppliers'future earnings and contribute to improving the quality of analysts'earnings forecasts.

Customer EarningsAnalystsEarnings Forecast RevisionSupply ChainInformation Spillover

张亮亮、柴紫谦、黄诗梦

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中国矿业大学经济管理学院,江苏徐州 221116

客户盈余 分析师 盈余预测修正 供应链 信息溢出

国家自然科学基金青年项目

71802185

2024

系统工程
湖南省系统工程与管理学会

系统工程

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.721
ISSN:1001-4098
年,卷(期):2024.42(1)
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