长时间的疫情防控工作和病毒易变异的特性给公众重大流行病防控意识的持续度带来了挑战.为此,本文在考虑防疫中公众的主流疲劳心理与公众防疫行为的成本收益等影响因素的基础上,构建了公众通过社交媒体与线下交流构成的多重网络中重大流行病防控意识传播的 No awareness-Have awareness-Awareness fatigue(NHF)模型.其次,得出区分重大流行病防控意识在公众中传播与否的阈值.最后,对模型进行数值模拟与实证数据分析,并提出利用多种信息渠道有效促进重大流行病防控意识传播与保持的策略建议.研究表明:应均衡且适度地使用各渠道开展防疫宣传教育以达到最佳效果,否则可能导致公众对重大流行病防控产生疲劳心理,进而对重大流行病防控意识在公众中的传播产生负向影响.病毒变异间接地促进了重大流行病防控意识的传播,但当病毒发生多次变异后促进作用几乎为零.重大流行病防控成本收益的感知回报比越高,防控意识的传播扩散性越强.本研究对于未来重大流行病的防控工作具有一定的参考价值.
Research on transmission dynamics model and maintenance strategies of major epidemic prevention and control awareness
The long-term epidemic prevention and control work and the mutable nature of the virus challenge to the sustainability of public major epidemic prevention and control awareness.Therefore,considering the consideration of factors such as the mainstream fatigue psychology of the public during epidemic prevention and the cost benefit of public epidemic prevention behavior,this paper constructs a No awareness-Have awareness-Awareness fatigue(NHF)model for de-scribing the spread of major epidemic prevention and control awareness in the multiplex network composed of online communication in social media and offline communication among the public.Secondly,the threshold is obtained which distinguishes whether major epidemic prevention and control awareness spreads among the public.Finally,numerical simulation and empirical data analysis are conducted on the model to propose strategies and suggestions for effectively pro-moting the spread and maintenance of major epidemic prevention and control awareness through multiple information channels.The study shows that the balanced and appropriate use of each channel to carry out epidemic prevention publicity and education can achieve the best results,otherwise it is likely to lead to public fatigue about major epidemic prevention and control,which will have the negative impact on the spread of prevention and control awareness among the public.Virus mutation indirectly promotes the spread of major epidemic prevention and control awareness,but after the virus mutates many times,the promotion effect is almost zero.The higher the ratio of perceived benefits to costs of major epidemic prevention and control,the stronger the dissemination of prevention and control awareness.This study has certain reference value for the major epidemic prevention and control in future.
spread of major epidemic prevention and control awarenessepidemic dynamicsmultiplex networkcost and benefitmainstream fatigue
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