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政府言行一致与企业股价崩盘风险

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本文通过人工阅读各个城市政府工作报告构建各地政府言行一致指标,以2003-2018年我国A股非金融上市企业为样本,实证检验政府言行一致对股价崩盘风险的影响.研究发现,当地方政府言行一致程度越高时,当地企业股价崩盘风险越低.机制检验发现,随着地方政府言行一致程度的提高,不仅宏观层面展现出更强的群体规范和更高的法治水平,而且微观层面上地方企业的盈余质量越高、董事会报告的异常语调越低.异质性分析表明,政府言行一致对企业股价崩盘风险的抑制作用在不具有政治关系网络的企业中更加显著.本文研究表明,政府作为从事社会公共事务管理的权威性力量,其言行一致起到了十分重要的标杠作用,这对政府实现高质量发展目标具有积极的启示意义.
Government's actions according with words and stock price crash risk
In this paper,through the manual reading of each city's government work report to construct the government's actions according with words,and takes the A-listed companies in China from 2003 to 2018 as the sample to examine the impact of the degree of government's actions according with words on the stock price crash risk.This study finds that the degree of government's actions according with words is higher,the corporate stock price crash risk is lower.The above conclusion remains stable after a series of robustness tests.Moreover,the mechanism test finds that,on the one hand,at the regional level,the degree of government's actions according with words is higher,the regional group norms are stronger and the level of rule of law is higher;on the other hand,this paper also finds that the degree of government's actions according with words is higher,the level of the corporate earnings management and the abnormal tone of the MD&A reports are lower.In addition,the heterogeneity analysis shows that when a company doesn't have political networks,the negative relationship between the degree of government's actions according with words and corporate stock price crash risk is stronger.This paper has certain enlightenment significance for how the government can promote the modernization of governance capabilities and complete the goal of high-quality development.

the system of target governancegovernment's actions according with wordsgov-ernment work reportstock price crash risk

伍翕婷、游家兴、于明洋

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山东大学管理学院,济南 250100

厦门大学管理学院,厦门 361005

目标治理体制 政府言行一致 政府工作报告 股价崩盘风险

国家社会科学基金重大项目国家自然科学基金面上项目国家自然科学基金青年基金山东省自然科学基金青年基金

23&ZD0727227212572302131ZR2023QG078

2024

10.12011/SETP2022-2987

系统工程理论与实践
中国系统工程学会

系统工程理论与实践

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子：1.575
ISSN：1000-6788
年,卷(期)：2024.44(3)
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