Research on timing decision of shipping companies' emission reduction strategy switching under green policy regulation
Considering the green policy requirements of the IMO and the actual needs of the green development of the shipping industry,a competitive game model under two scenarios is built based on the change in ship speed caused by the change in emission reduction strategy.Based on considering the geometric Brownian motion of the total freight scale,this paper uses the theory of real options to explore the timing decision of shipping companies'emission reduc-tion strategy switching.Firstly,we find that stringent green policies,market competition,and shippers'preference for speed do not always motivate shipping companies to shift their emission reduction strategies ahead of time.Secondly,we find that equipment subsidies can always mo-tivate shipping companies to switch green strategies in advance,while operational subsidies can only take effect under certain conditions.Within a certain threshold range,equipment subsidies are always more effective than operating subsidies.Shortening the policy transition period can make the timing of the green strategy switching of shipping companies earlier,but in a specific range,the length of the transition period will not have an impact on the timing of the green strategy switching of shipping companies.Finally,we find that when the total freight volume is large and the growth rate is slow,shipping enterprises will change their emission reduction strategies in advance;Different equipment upgrade environments will have a different impact on the transition time of the emission reduction strategy of shipping enterprises.
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