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项目调度计划的鲁棒性评价指标构建与应用

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在不确定型项目的鲁棒调度研究中,调度计划的鲁棒性评价是重点也是难点.鉴于此,设计了一个鲁棒性评价指标.首先,分析了在项目约束下活动的随机特征,通过解构活动拖期与延期之间的关系,推导了活动开始时间的概率.接着,将不确定性造成的损失描述为进度偏离成本,通过近似法推导了其期望值,并以之作为调度计划鲁棒性的衡量指标.指标中引入了一个可自定义的参数,通过调整其大小,可权衡指标的精度和简洁度,以提高指标在实际应用中的灵活性.最后,通过实验表明:相较于传统的鲁棒性指标,新指标能精确反映调度计划的鲁棒性,并提高鲁棒调度算法的性能.
Construction and application of robustness indicator for project schedules
The evaluation of the project schedule's robustness is important and difficult in the study of robust scheduling for the project with uncertainties.Given this,a robustness evaluation indicator is designed in this paper.Firstly,the stochastic characteristics of activities within the project constraints are analyzed,and the probability of activity starting time is derived by deconstructing the relationship between activity procrastination and postponement.Then,the loss incurred by uncertainties is described as deviation cost,the expected value of which is deduced by an approximation method and used as a measure of the schedule's robustness.A settable parameter is introduced in the indicator.The precision and simplicity of the indicator can be weighed by adjusting the parameter,which improves the flexibility of the indicator in practical applications.Finally,the experiments show that the new indicator can accurately reflect the schedule's robustness and improve the performance of robust scheduling algorithms compared with the traditional ones.

uncertaintyproject schedulingrobust optimizationrobustnessevaluation indi-cator

胡振涛、崔南方、冷凯君、毕娅

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湖北经济学院湖北物流发展研究中心,武汉 430205

华中科技大学管理学院,武汉 430074

不确定性 项目调度 鲁棒优化 鲁棒性 评价指标

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家社会科学基金

71971094717010677207107521BGL230

2024

系统工程理论与实践
中国系统工程学会

系统工程理论与实践

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子:1.575
ISSN:1000-6788
年,卷(期):2024.44(5)
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