Reducing payment rate,population policy adjustment and economic growth
In the face of the downward pressure of the economy,to reduce the burden of enter-prises and stimulate economic vitality,the state proposed to reduce the payment rate of enterprise endowment insurance.In order to accurately answer the impact of reducing the payment rate of enterprise endowment insurance to 16％on the future economic growth,this paper uses the dynamic general equilibrium model of two sectors and carries out simulation analysis based on realistic feasible parameters.The results show that:From 2019 to 2050,if the enterprise en-dowment insurance contribution rate drops to 16％,the potential economic growth rate over the years will increase by 0.076％,but the effect of further reducing the rate tends to weaken;If the multiple effects of the fee reduction are taken into account,the reduction of the payment rate will have an adverse impact on the financial status of the pension fund.In view of the limited effect of reducing the payment rate to 16％on economic growth,the negative impact on the financial status of the pension fund,and the weakening effect of further reducing the rate.This paper attempts to find other driving forces to promote China's economic growth.According to the simulation study,while reducing the payment rate to 16％,improving the fertility level will slightly reduce the potential GDP growth rate in the short term,but in the long run,it will significantly increase the potential GDP growth rate in the future.Promoting urbanization can improve the potential GDP growth rate in the short term,but the long-term effect will be weak-ened.Whether in the short term or the long term,delayed retirement can improve the potential GDP growth rate in the future,and the long-term effects of gradually delayed retirement and immediate delayed retirement tend to be the same.
contribution rate of endowment insuranceeconomic growth ratedynamic general equilibrium model
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