The"technical"content of analysts'forecasts—Based on empirical evidence from Week52high
This article investigates the influence of technical analysis on analyst forecasts us-ing data from Chinese A-share listed companies spanning 2007 to 2020.Our findings reveal:1)Technical analysis significantly affects analyst forecasts,particularly evident when stock prices approach their 52-week historical highs(Week52high rises),resulting in notable shifts in analyst ratings alongside reduced forecast bias and dispersion.2)The effect of technical analysis on analyst forecasts is heightened under conditions of diminished institutional investor pressure and enhanced information disclosure quality.Further analysis suggests that analysts producing a higher volume of research reports tend to increasingly rely on technical analysis due to"decision fatigue."Surprisingly,star analysts derive greater benefits from technical analysis,contrary to common perception.Additionally,technical analysis may serve as a signaling mechanism,as triggering technical indicators effectively stimulates analyst research and report releases,thereby enhancing the informational content of stock prices.
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