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新发展格局下产业升级、国内贸易与绿色增长

Industrial upgrading,domestic trade and green growth under China's new development pattern

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文章首次在国内价值链(NVC)下界定了以高附加值和低碳排放为核心的"绿色增长",厘清了其背后非对称的产业升级和产业转移特征,还首次利用阶梯式结构分解(HSDA)方法测算分析了产业转移效应对国内绿色增长不平衡性的贡献程度,并识别了关键的产业路径.结果发现,2012-2017年各省市产业结构的升级调整整体上促进了中国增加值收益和碳排放量"脱钩",但非对称产业升级伴随的产业转移不可避免地加剧了地区间绿色增长的不平衡性,且主要表现为沿海发达省市对河北、山西、内蒙古的增加值碳排放净转出,其中2007-2015年产业转移效应是最主要因素,2015-2017年碳排放系数差异则占主导地位.关键产业路径表现为,沿海发达省市对建筑服务、中高/高技术制造业以及其他服务业的最终需求,引致了河北、内蒙古、山西中低技术制造业、其他制造业的生产和增加值碳排放净转入,这对于从产业链层面提出差异化碳排放权分配机制具有重要参考价值.
This paper introduces the concept of"green growth"for the first time,emphasiz-ing high value-added economic activities coupled with low carbon emissions.It also elucidates the asymmetric effects of industrial upgrading and transfer that contribute to the realization of green growth.Furthermore,the paper employs the hierarchical structural decomposition analysis(HSDA)method to examine the impact of inter-regional industrial transfers on China's domes-tic economic and ecological balance.It identifies key industrial pathways that lead to the net transfer of value-added carbon emissions between regions.The primary findings are as follows:1)The industrial structure of China's regions is currently undergoing upgrades and adjustments,resulting in a noticeable"decoupling"between economic value-added and carbon emissions from 2012 to 2017;2)Nevertheless,the process of industrial transfer that accompanies asymmetric industrial upgrading exacerbates the green growth imbalance among regions.This is particularly evident in the net transfer of value-added carbon emissions from developed coastal provinces and cities to Hebei,Shanxi,and Inner Mongolia;3)Two dominant factors contribute to this imbalance:The industrial transfer effect,which played a crucial role between 2007 and 2015,and the differences in carbon emission coefficients that prevailed from 2015 to 2017;4)The key industrial pathways driving these transfers involve the final demand for construction services,medium-high/high-technology manufacturing,and other services in developed coastal provinces and cities.This results in the net transfer of production and value-added carbon emissions from medium-and low-technology manufacturing and other manufacturing industries in Hebei,Inner Mongolia,and Shanxi.These findings hold significant implications for proposing a differentiated carbon emission rights allocation mechanism,particularly at the industrial chain level.

green growthindustrial upgradingindustrial transferinput-output modelhier-archical structural decomposition analysis

余丽丽、彭水军

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上海对外经贸大学国际经贸研究所,上海 200336

复旦大学经济学院,上海 200433

厦门大学经济学院,厦门 361005

绿色增长 产业升级 产业转移 投入产出模型 阶梯式结构分解方法

国家自然科学基金教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金国家社会科学基金重大项目教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目

7210312921YJC79014723ZDA05312JJD790027

2024

10.12011/SETP2022-1932

系统工程理论与实践
中国系统工程学会

系统工程理论与实践

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子：1.575
ISSN：1000-6788
年,卷(期)：2024.44(7)