首页|基于双阈值变量面板模型的要素投入与经济增长关系研究

基于双阈值变量面板模型的要素投入与经济增长关系研究

扫码查看
基于多国面板数据,采用双阈值变量面板模型分析在不同经济环境阶段,物质、人力和技术投入对经济增长的差异性影响.研究发现要素投入对经济增长的影响机制存在着显著的通货膨胀和经济增速双阈值效应.当经济处于高通胀低增速区间时,需要防范经济进入衰退阶段,而后疫情时代全球经济增速普遍下滑,因而控制通胀的过度升高,成为稳定经济、调节市场的重要举措之一.并且双阈值效应会根据国家发展程度呈现出异质性,发展中国家的双阈值相对较高,且经济增长仍以依靠人力投入为主,高通胀低增速区间对其经济持续发展最为不利;而发达国家的双阈值普遍偏低,处于双高区间的经济增长模式对于发达国家而言存在较高风险,现阶段控制通胀是发达国家最需要关注的问题.
The relationship between factor inputs and economic growth research based on dual threshold variables panel model
This paper is based on panel data from multiple countries and applies a dual thresh-old variables panel model to analyze the differential effects of material,human,and technological inputs growth on economic growth in different stages of the economic environment.We have found that there are significant dual threshold effects of inflation and economic growth in the impact mechanism of factor inputs on economic growth.When the economy falls into the range of high inflation and low growth rate,measures need to be taken to prevent it from entering a recession phase.During the post-pandemic era,global economic growth rates have generally declined,so controlling excessive inflation has become one of the important measures to stabilize the economy and regulate the markets.Furthermore,the dual threshold effects exhibit hetero-geneity based on the level of national development.Developing countries have relatively high dual thresholds,and economic growth still relies primarily on human capital input.In these countries,the range of high inflation and low growth rate is most unfavorable for their sustained economic development.However,the double thresholds in developed countries is generally lower,and the economic growth model in the double high range poses high risks for developed countries.Therefore,controlling inflation is currently a paramount concern for developed nations.

factor inputseconomic growthdual threshold variables panel modelinflationeconomic growth rate

胡毅、关可欣

展开 >

中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京 100190

中国科学院大学数字经济监测预测预警与政策仿真教育部哲学社会科学实验室(培育),北京 100190

要素投入 经济增长 双阈值变量面板模型 通货膨胀 经济增速

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金中国科学院大学数字经济监测预测预警与政策仿真教育部哲学社会科学实验室(培育)基金

7207312471988101E2810801

2024

系统工程理论与实践
中国系统工程学会

系统工程理论与实践

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子:1.575
ISSN:1000-6788
年,卷(期):2024.44(9)