首页|互联网促进了国际贸易吗?——来自引力模型与微观企业的证据

互联网促进了国际贸易吗?——来自引力模型与微观企业的证据

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本文从理论和实证两个层面,结合2004-2014年国家间进出口贸易数据以及企业微观数据,实证检验了互联网对贸易的影响及其影响机制.研究发现,互联网基础设施对出口总额存在促进效应,然而这一效应随时间推移正逐渐减弱.企业层面微观证据发现互联网在广延边际上促进了更多企业进入特定出口市场,而在集约边际上降低了每个企业向特定市场出口特定产品的出口量,这一发现与理论模型相吻合.异质性分析的结果表明互联网对贸易的影响主要体现在低收入国家以及文化距离较大的国家,而对企业的影响主要体现在进入成本较低的行业与私营企业中.最后,本文发现通过开拓更多出口市场、提高出口产品质量的方式可以降低集约边际上的负向效应.
Does the internet promote international trade?—Evidence from gravity models and firm data
This paper examines the impact of the internet on international trade combining theory model and inter-country as well as firm data between 2004 and 2014.Results show that internet infrastructure has a positive effect on total export,but this effect is gradually fading over time.From the perspective of firms,we find that internet promotes more firms to enter export markets,but reduces the export amounts for each firm to specific country in specific product,which is consistent with the theoretical model.Heterogeneity analysis shows that internet has a stronger boosting effect on trade in low-income and greater cultural distance countries,while it has a positive effect in low entry cost industries and private firms significantly.Finally,it is found that internet reduces the negative effect of intensive margin by expanding more export markets and improving the quality of export products.

internetinternational trademarket competitiongravity model

司继春、邓可青、张瑞涵

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上海对外经贸大学统计与信息学院,上海 201620

湘潭大学商学院,湘潭 411105

上海立信会计金融学院国际经贸学院,上海 201209

互联网 国际贸易 市场竞争 引力模型

国家自然科学基金国家社会科学基金青年项目

7210313221CJY021

2024

系统工程理论与实践
中国系统工程学会

系统工程理论与实践

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子:1.575
ISSN:1000-6788
年,卷(期):2024.44(9)