基于组织-任务网络的项目进度风险分析
Analysis of project schedule risk based on organization-task network
施骞 1刘安谱 1肖超1
作者信息
- 1. 同济大学经济与管理学院,上海 200092
- 折叠
摘要
针对工程项目外部进度风险的传播与控制,构建项目组织-任务网络模型,依据级联失效理论,从风险荷载、节点容量、荷载重分配与失效判别规则四方面确定项目进度风险的传播机制.仿真结果表明,组织和任务间的相互关系会扩大外部风险对项目进度的影响,且随机组织失效造成的影响大于关键组织.通过增加风险投入、加强预警、提高容错率可在一定范围内增强项目风险抵抗能力,同时需要加强非关键组织的风险预警与管控,有效控制外部风险对项目进度造成的影响.
Abstract
This paper builds an organization-task network model to study the propagation effect and control of project external schedule risks.Project schedule risk propagation mechanism of the network model is deter-mined.The mechanism includes risk load,node capacity,load redistribution and failure discrimination rules according to cascading failure theory.Simulation results show that the organization-task interrelationship am-plifies the impacts of external risks.Meanwhile,random organizational failure causes a greater impact than critical organization in the presence of risk.Therefore,increasing risk investment,strengthening early warn-ing,and improving fault tolerance rate can enhance the risk resistance to a certain extent.Risk monitoring and control of non-critical organizations need to be strengthened to effectively control the impact of external risks on the project schedule.
关键词
组织-任务网络/风险传播/级联失效/项目进度/建模仿真Key words
organization-task network/risk propagation/cascading failure/project schedule/modeling and simulation引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72072131)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(T2261129476)
国家社会科学基金资助项目(20CGL047)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据