Analysis of project schedule risk based on organization-task network
This paper builds an organization-task network model to study the propagation effect and control of project external schedule risks.Project schedule risk propagation mechanism of the network model is deter-mined.The mechanism includes risk load,node capacity,load redistribution and failure discrimination rules according to cascading failure theory.Simulation results show that the organization-task interrelationship am-plifies the impacts of external risks.Meanwhile,random organizational failure causes a greater impact than critical organization in the presence of risk.Therefore,increasing risk investment,strengthening early warn-ing,and improving fault tolerance rate can enhance the risk resistance to a certain extent.Risk monitoring and control of non-critical organizations need to be strengthened to effectively control the impact of external risks on the project schedule.
organization-task networkrisk propagationcascading failureproject schedulemodeling and simulation
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