首页|Key indexes identifying approach of weapon equipment system-of-systems effectiveness integrating Bayes method and dynamic grey incidence analysis model

Key indexes identifying approach of weapon equipment system-of-systems effectiveness integrating Bayes method and dynamic grey incidence analysis model

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Aiming at the characteristics of multi-stage and(extremely)small samples of the identification problem of key effectiveness indexes of weapon equipment system-of-systems(WESoS),a Bayesian intelligent identification and inference model for system effectiveness assessment indexes based on dynamic grey incidence is proposed.The method uses multi-layer Bayesian techniques,makes full use of historical statistics and empirical information,and determines the Bayesian estima-tion of the incidence degree of indexes,which effectively solves the difficulties of small sample size of effectiveness indexes and difficulty in obtaining incidence rules between indexes.Sec-ondly,The method quantifies the incidence relationship between evaluation indexes and combat effectiveness based on Bayesian posterior grey incidence,and then identifies key system effec-tiveness evaluation indexes.Finally,the proposed method is applied to a case of screening key effectiveness indexes of a missile defensive system,and the analysis results show that the proposed method can fuse multi-moment information and extract multi-stage key indexes,and has good data extraction capability in the case of small samples.

weapon equipment system-of-systems(WESoS)effectiveness index systemeffectiveness key indexBayes theo-remgrey incidence analysis(extremely)small samples

ZHANG Jingru、FANG Zhigeng、YE Feng、CHEN Ding

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College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210006,China

National Key Laboratory for Complex Systems Simulation,Institute of System Engineering,Academy of Military Science,Beijing 100020,China

Shanghai Electro-Mechanical Engineering Institute,Shanghai 201109,China

2024

系统工程与电子技术(英文版)
中国航天科工防御技术研究院 中国宇航学会 中国系统工程学会 中国系统仿真学会

系统工程与电子技术(英文版)

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.64
ISSN:1004-4132
年,卷(期):2024.35(6)