Research on Demand Subsidies for the Social Capital Participating in the Transportation Projects
To mitigate the financial pressure,the government has increasingly adopted the franchise model to cooperate with the social capital to provide transportation projects in recent years.However,the cooperation between the government and the social capital in providing transportation projects has the characteristics of long construction cycle,largely upfront investment and high operation risk,which reduce the social capital's willingness to cooperate with the government.Compared with other risks,the demand risk is one of the most primary operation risks in transportation projects.To share part of the demand risk and encourage the social capital to participate in the construction and operation of transportation projects,the government support is an effective method.By taking the construction and operation of transportation projects participated by the social capital as the research objects and assuming that the fluctuation of quantity demanded meets the binomial model,this paper uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to predict the quantity demanded and obtains the change tendency of quantity demanded.Meanwhile,the net present value method(NPV)is used to construct the demand subsidy model so as to determine the optimal subsidy ceiling and subsidy amount.Finally,this paper presents the optimal adjustment mechanism of subsidy when the actual quantity demand deviates from the forecast quantity demand through the numerical simulation.
万方数据
维普
