Domestic films in China show a distinct preference for peak seasons when choosing release dates.This preference has several consequences,such as a lack of films during off-peak seasons,intensified unfair competition during peak seasons,and the emergence of"sky-high ticket prices"that harm consumer interests.However,this preference does not align with the actual demands of the film market.It is not necessarily the case that consumers have weaker movie-watching intentions and lower total demand during off-peak seasons.This bias in release date choice is due to irrational expectations,which include inaccurate estimates of endogenous demand,neglecting the stimulating effect of exogenous factors,simplifying risk expectations,and underestimating competitive risks.To solve this problem,a rational analytical framework that considers both utility and risk needs to be established.This framework involves building,first,a utility expectation model that considers exogenous factors based on real data of movie-watching during off-peak and peak seasons,and second,a prediction model that takes into account supply quantity and quality.In this way,a scientific model that reflects the factors that influence release date demand can be established.
NETL
NSTL
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