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基于模糊贝叶斯网络的引水隧洞安全评价模型分析

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为准确预测黄河引水隧洞安全隐患,提出基于模糊集理论和主观贝叶斯方法的模糊贝叶斯安全评价模型.结合实际巡检数据,模型使用贝叶斯网络处理模糊信息与不确定信息,将巡检数据中给出的多态性故障事件模糊化;再通过贝叶斯网络的条件概率表找出不同故障事件之间的逻辑关系;最后获得对引水隧洞安全模型的整体评价.通过开展引水隧洞安全评价模型实例分析,验证了该方法的可行性.
Analysis of safety evaluation model of headrace tunnel based on fuzzy Bayesian network
In order to accurately predict the potential safety hazards of the Yellow River diversion tunnel,a fuzzy Bayesian safety evaluation model based on fuzzy set theory and subjective Bayesian method is proposed.Combined with the actual inspection data,this model uses Bayesian Network(BN)to process fuzzy information and uncertain information,fuzzies polymorphic fault events from the inspection data,and then finds out logical relationship among different fault events through conditional probability table of Bayesian network.Finally,the overall evaluation of the headrace tunnel safety model is obtained,and the feasibility of this method is verified by example analysis of the headrace tunnel safety evaluation model.

fuzzy set theorysubjective Bayesian theoryuncertaintysafety evaluation model of headrace tunnel

皮明、杨涛、张良、田华平、黄山河

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西南科技大学 信息工程学院,四川 绵阳 621010

模糊集理论 主观贝叶斯理论 不确定性 引水隧洞安全评价模型

国家重点研发计划子课题西南科技大学博士基金

2019YFB131050421zx7142

2024

太赫兹科学与电子信息学报
中国工程物理研究院电子工程研究所

太赫兹科学与电子信息学报

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.407
ISSN:2095-4980
年,卷(期):2024.22(5)
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